EUR/GBP flows: ECB and BOE in Focus

The July ECB accounts, plus ECB Rehn comments, suggest that the ECB is preparing to cut by 25bps on Sep 12 and the market is then discount a further cut in December and a 50% probability of a cut in October.  With low expectations of a BOE cut in September, it could be UK data or speeches that change relative expectations.  BOE Bailey is speaking at Jackson Hole today at 4pm and will be watched for clues.  Either Bailey give limited forward guidance suggests no change in September or surprises with Sep rate cut hints.