India Elections: Political Manoeuvres Unfold
The Rajya Sabha (upper house) elections in India saw a mix of strategic moves, unexpected contests and the assertion of political dominance. While 41 out of 56 leaders secured their seats unopposed, the remaining 15 seats, distributed across the states of Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka, saw a close contest February 27, 2024. This was the last election is before India's goes to vote for parliamentary elections in April-May 2024. The ruling Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP), which already enjoys a majority in the Lok Sabha (lower house), made gains in the upper house as well. A clear majority in both houses for BJP (expected to win the May elections) will have implications for policy continuity and legislation.
The Rajya Sabha elections in India, marked by 41 unopposed wins out of 56, revealed strategic political moves and contests in key states. The BJP's decision to force a contest in Uttar Pradesh, the multi-cornered battle in Karnataka and the BJP's assertion in Himachal Pradesh highlight the intricate dynamics. With alliances being tested and electoral strategies at play, the outcomes of these elections are closely watched and will influence future policy decisions and the political landscape in India. The alliances and contests in Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, and Karnataka are crucial indicators for the upcoming general elections.
Uttar Pradesh - A Battleground of Alliances
Uttar Pradesh, with 11 candidates vying for 10 seats became a focal point of strategic moves. The BJP's decision to field eight candidates, forcing a contest that could have been uncontested, added an interesting twist to the electoral narrative. The Samajwadi Party (SP) alliance with the Congress in the state faced its first electoral test, as the two largest parties aimed to secure seven and three Rajya Sabha seats, respectively. However, BJP secured major wins, seucring eight out of ten seats. The SP secured the remaining two seats.
Himachal Pradesh - BJP Asserting Influence
The single Rajya Sabha seat in Himachal Pradesh became a focal point of dispute as the BJP asserted an unexpected triumph. The voting ended in a deadlock, with both Congress and BJP candidates securing 34 votes each. The tie-breaker, determined by a draw of lots, favored the BJP candidate Harsh Mahajan. Despite Congress holding a majority with 40 MLAs and support from 3 independent MLAs in the 68-member Himachal Assembly, the BJP clinched victory due to cross-voting by at least six Congress MLAs and three independents. The upheaval in Himachal Pradesh has sparked speculation that the BJP may initiate a no-confidence motion against the 14-month-old Congress government led by Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu in the Himachal Pradesh Assembly today.
Karnataka - Multi-Cornered Contest
Karnataka presented a multi-cornered contest with five candidates vying for four seats. The Congress, BJP, and the regional party, JD(S) actively participated, with each candidate requiring 45 first preference votes to win. The intricate balance of power was evident, as the BJP secured one seat, while the Congress retained control and secured three seats. The regional party, JD(S) lost out completely.
The results of the Rajya Sabha elections are laden with implications for the political landscape of India. The BJP secured a total of 30 seats in the upper house in these elections. This takes up the BJP's tally to 97, and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to 117. At 117, the NDA is just shy of majority 9121) in the upper house. The performance in these elections will shape the political discourse ahead of the parliamentary elections. Our expectation is that the ruling BJP will be able to secure a majority in the lower house in April-May this year. With several smaller parties and nominated members the BJP is also likely to have some control in the upper house, which would be a positive for policy continuity but may not be beneficial for democracy.