Psychology for major markets Nov 18
USD mostly steady as delayed US data awaited, JPY still weak
EUR/USD – EUR holding near the centre of the 1.14-1.18 range, and struggling to generate any momentum in either direction. Focus on the September US employment report on Thursday to create some volatility.
USD/JPY – USD/JPY continuing to make new 9 month highs in spite of verbal intervention from Finance minister Katayama. Risks of actual intervention increasing with the JPY near all time lows in real trade-weighted terms.
EUR/GBP – EUR/GBP consolidation blow the recent highs awaiting the upcoming Budget on November 26. Risks still look to be on the upside given strong likelihood of a December rate cut if the Budget is tight as expected, while a looser Budget would undermine confidence.
AUD/USD – AUD/USD showed a more positive tone helped by strong labour market data but slipping back as equity markets correct lower. But still stuck in a 0.64-0.67 range.
Equities – S&P 500 down from the highs as AI sensitive stocks correct lower. Nvidia results this week in focus but also some concerns that Fed easing may be less aggressive than expected.