Psychology for major markets Nov 17
USD mostly steady as delayed US data awaited
EUR/USD – EUR trading back up to the centre of the 1.14-1.18 range. The end of the US shutdown may be leading to some squaring of long USD positions, but little reason to expect a range break.
USD/JPY – USD/JPY backing off the 155 level but EUR/JPY hovers near all time highs, despite weaker equities. Fading expectations of a December BoJ rate hike weighing on the JPY. Verbal intervention continues to slow but not stop losses.
EUR/GBP – EUR/GBP made new highs for the year, helped by weaker data, political uncertainty, concerns about the abandonment of plans to raise income tax, and rising expectations of BoE easing in December. But gains above 0.8850 look likely to be more difficult.
AUD/USD – AUD/USD showed a more positive tone helped by strong labour market data but slipping back as equity markets correct lower. Still stuck in a 0.64-0.67 range.
Equities – S&P 500 down from the highs as AI sensitive stocks correct lower. Nvidia results this week in focus but also some concerns that Fed easing may be less aggressive than expected.