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Published: 2024-01-11T11:08:35.000Z

Psychology for major markets 11 Jan

byAdrian Schmidt

Senior FX Strategist
-

Focus on US CPI.

EUR/USD – EUR/USD holding in the 1.09-1.10 range for now. Focus on the US CPI data on Thursday with USD risks slightly weighted to the downside. An upside surprise on CPI looks less likely, but the market might be more sensitive to it.
USD/JPY – USD/JPY running out of steam a bit near 146 and has overshot yield spread moves. Downside risks on US CPI.
EUR/GBP – EUR/GBP holding close to 0.86, but looking a little low relative to current yield spreads. With BoE policy already priced to be more hawkish than others, upside risks dominate.
AUD/USD – The 0.6870 high from December looking toppish near term, but still some upside scope against the EUR if risk sentiment stabilises.
USD/CHF – CHF holding strong helped by higher than expected December CPI, but still looks toppish here as SNB turns more dovish and halts FX selling. 
Equities - Payrolls strong but not strong enough to cause alarm. We expect CPI to be acceptably subdued, but the market is vulnerable to an upside surprise. 

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