BJP Sweeps Heartland States, Sets Modi Up For a Hat-trick

Five years ago, the Congress had secured victories in all three states, but the tide turned decisively in this election. The BJP, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, not only retained power in Madhya Pradesh but also wrested control of Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh from the Congress. The only silver lining for the Congress was a remarkable revival in Telangana, where it pushed the BJP to the third position.  The BJP's stellar performance, winning 115 out of 199 seats in Rajasthan, 164 of 230 in Madhya Pradesh, and 54 of 90 in Chhattisgarh, provides the party's central leadership with the mandate to shape the government in these states. Prime Minister Modi's influence played a pivotal role in securing these victories, bolstering his authority as he eyes a third consecutive term in 2024. However, the Congress did not face a complete washout, winning in the state of Telangana.
The electoral map now reveals a divide between the BJP strongholds in the north and west and peninsular India, where non-BJP parties hold sway. The Congress's setback in the Hindi-speaking states highlights vulnerabilities in its approach, particularly regarding social justice and welfare schemes. While these are essential tools, they proved insufficient against the BJP's effective combination of leadership, candidate selection, campaigning, ideological clarity, and organizational cohesion.

The BJP's campaign strategy, centered around Prime Minister Modi, paid off, sidelining regional leaders and reinforcing the party's grip in the heartland. This high-stakes gamble, which relegated regional leaders to the background paid off handsomely, as the party secured clear majorities in the three densely populated states. These decisive victories not only solidified the BJP's grip on the Hindi heartland but also gave the central leadership unparalleled latitude in government formation. Modi's leadership emerged as the linchpin of these wins, reinforcing his authority ahead of the 2024 elections. The party's decision to downplay regional leaders, including Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan of Madhya Pradesh, underscored a cohesive strategy that paid dividends. While Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot put up a spirited fight, preventing a complete washout of the Congress, Chhattisgarh witnessed a collapse amid allegations of corruption and failed social engineering. BJP's strategic campaign ensured that its nationalist and welfare oriented campaign trumped anti-incumbency in Madhya Pradesh, while the tribal vote and anti-incumbency worked in its in neighbouring state of Chhattisgarh. Meanwhile, the success in Telangana, where the BJP won eight seats compared to just one in the previous election (but still ranked third in the state), showcases the party's ability to resonate with diverse caste groups. The Congress, on the other hand, grappled with challenges, including allegations of corruption and failed social engineering in Chhattisgarh. Congress leader, Rahul Gandhi's call for a caste-based census did not gain sufficient traction, with the BJP's Hindutva politics continuing to appeal to a broader spectrum of voters. In Telangana, the Congress deployed a successful strategy mirroring its playbook in Karnataka, uniting dominant castes.

As the BJP gains momentum and confidence, the Congress faces a critical juncture. The BJP's growing dominance is further evident in its expanding national footprint. Currently in power in 12 states and a coalition partner in four others, the BJP rules 58% of India's land area, comprising 57% of the population. In contrast, opposition-governed states cover 41% of the land area with 43% of the population. With the BJP now accounting for almost half of the 543 Lok Sabha seats, the party's "hat-trick" in state elections, as stated by Modi, becomes a strong indicator of a potential "hat-trick" in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Consequently, the results indicate a challenging road ahead for the Congress in regaining support in the Hindi heartland and setting the stage for a competitive battle in 2024. For now, it appears that the 2024 elections would be another Modi-sweep.