Published: 2025-02-18T15:45:50.000Z
Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to remain wide, both exports and imports to rise
Senior Economist , North America
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We expect an advance January goods trade deficit of $122.1bn, up marginally from a record $122.0bn seen in December. While we expect exports to rebound from a weak December, we also expect imports to see a third straight strong gain.
We expect exports to rise by 6.0% after a 3.8% December decline, supported in particular by a strong pick up in aircraft as Boeing recovers from a recent strike, and a 1.3% increase in export prices.
We expect imports to rise by 3.5%, with only 0.3% of that coming from price gains. This will be a third straight strong gain, fueled by a desire to beat threatened tariffs. While the imports rise will be well below that of exports in percentage terms, in USD terms the gains will be similar.
