Preview: Due November 1 - U.S. October ISM Manufacturing - Slightly less weak
We expect an October ISM manufacturing index of 47.5, slightly improved from two straight months at 47.2 and 46.8 in July but still suggesting a slightly negative underlying manufacturing picture.
A reading of 47.5 would be consistent with a marginally improved S and P manufacturing index in October. Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys were also slightly less negative. The Philly Fed recorded a clearly positive reading but the Empire State’s turned negative and the Chicago PMI was very weak. On balance the signals are for marginal improvement.
In the ISM detail we expect a second straight moderate improvement in new orders and bounces from weak September data for employment and inventories. We however expect production and deliveries to correct from significant October improvements.
Prices paid do not contribute to the composite, and we expect a correction higher to a neutral 50.0 after September at 48.3 saw the first negative reading since December.
