Psychology for major markets June 19th

EUR/USD – Sentiment and EUR/USD stabilising with France/Germany bond spreads but hard to see a significant EUR recovery this side of the French election.

USD/JPY – USD/JPY continues to push on significant technical levels above 158, despite there being little obvious trigger for further JPY weakness. Intervention risks rising but action only likely if BoJ sees market as overstretched.

EUR/GBP – Stabilisation in the mid-0.84s as French risks now seen as priced in. BoE MPC statement this week carry some GBP downside risk as August rate cut expectations are too low.

AUD/USD – More hawkish RBA statement than expected providing support, with some further upside scope if market prices out rate cut expectations.

EUR/CHF – Heavy CHF short positions suggest further downside risk but some stabilisation likely near 0.95 if French political risks are seen as priced in.

Equities – New high seen in the US as yields dipped after retail sales but valuations getting stretched and European political uncertainty undermining sentiment.