North American Summary and Highlights 30 Jun

North American session

The USD slipped in North America, EUR/USD rising to 1.1780 from 1.1710. GBP/USD lagged, as EUR/GBP rallied to .8580 from .8555, but EUR/CHF remained weaker near .9340. The commodity currencies were firmer, AUD/USD at .6580 from .6530 while USD/CAD fell to 1.3625 from 1.3675. USD/JPY saw only modest losses, to 144.15 after rising to near 144.50. 

Manufacturing surveys from the Chicago PMI and Dallas Feds remained weak but focus was more on trade negotiations and continued attacks on Fed Chairman Powell coming from Trump. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that tariffs could return to April 2 levels if countries were recalcitrant and speculated about using an upcoming opening in the FOMC in January to introduce a new Chair. Trump criticised Japan for not buying American rice while Bloomberg reported that the EU was willing to accept a 10% tariff from the US, but would be seeking key exemptions.  

European morning session 

EUR/USD was not much changed but USD/JPY was slightly higher, gaining 20 pips to 144.20, and USD/CHF slightly lower, falling 15 pips to 0.7970. GBP, the scandis and the commodity currencies were all a little lower. AUD/USD lost 20 pips to 0.6530, GBP/USD 30 pips to 1.37, USD CAD gained 20 pips to 1.3680, and EUR/NOK and EUR/SEK both gained 4 figures.  

Newswise German retail sales data early in the session was much weaker than expected, falling 1.6% m/m, while German state CPI data came in mixed but net weaker than expected with NRW and Bavaria both showing significant declines to 1.8% y/y in June. The national CPI data was expected to see a small increase to 2.2% y/y, but after the state data a small decline looks more likely. Yields were generally slightly lower across the board, so probably not in response to the German data.  

UK money data was slightly on the weak side of consensus, with both mortgage lending and consumer credit lower than expected, although mortgage approvals were slightly higher. Italian provisional June CPI was slightly weaker than expected at 1.7% y/y.