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October 18, 2024

Chart EUR/USD Update: Extending losses
Paying Article

October 18, 2024 1:32 AM UTC

Prices remains under pressure and break of the 1.0850/35 congestion and Fibonacci level see scope to target the 1.0800 level

USD/JPY flows: September CI Moderates
Paying Article

October 18, 2024 1:00 AM UTC

Japan September National Headline CPI +2.5% y/y 

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extending consolidation above 162.00 level
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October 18, 2024 12:58 AM UTC

Remains in consolidation below the 163.60 high as prices unwind the overbought daily studies

Chart USD/JPY Update: Break above 150.00 opens up scope to 150.75/90 area
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October 18, 2024 12:53 AM UTC

Extending choppy gains and break above the 150.00 level opens up scope to resistance at 150.75/90

Chart NZD/USD Update: Consolidating, but still heavy
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October 18, 2024 12:35 AM UTC

Limited on break of the .6050 Fibonacci level as prices edged up from the .6040 low to consolidate losses from the September high

Chart AUD/USD Update: Poised for stronger bounce from .6658 low
Paying Article

October 18, 2024 12:24 AM UTC

Turned up in consolidation above support at the .6650/45 congestion and 50% Fibonacci retracement

October 17, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, October 18th
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

JPY still on the back foot – Japan CPI in focus
Risk sentiment remains positive after strong US data on Thursday
EUR/USD retains a downside bias
GBP risks on retail sales skewed to the upside
USD could benefit if housing starts robust despite hurricanes

North American Summary and Highlights 17 October
Freemium Article

October 17, 2024 7:35 PM UTC

Overview - The USD advanced on strong US data, while the EUR was weaker after a 25bps ECB easing. 

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Brazil: Demand and Imported Prices Lead Inflation Rise
Freemium Article

October 17, 2024 6:33 PM UTC

Our updated model shows that stronger-than-expected demand and BRL depreciation are driving Brazil’s inflation higher, while supply remains stable. Despite recent rate hikes, inflation expectations have risen, loosening monetary policy. We expect the BCB to implement two more 50 bps hikes before p

Chart USD/BRL Update: Consolidating test of 5.7000
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October 17, 2024 4:31 PM UTC

Consolidation around 5.6000 has given way to a break higher

Chart USD/CAD Update: Immediate gains to remain limited
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October 17, 2024 4:11 PM UTC

Consolidation is giving way to a minor test higher

Preview: Due October24 - U.S. October S&P PMIs - Manufacturing slightly less weak, Services slightly less strong
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 3:11 PM UTC

We expect October’s S and P PMIs to show a marginal increase in manufacturing, to a still weak 47.5 from 47.3, and a marginal dip in services to a still healthy 55.0 from 55.2. 

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, October 18th
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 2:59 PM UTC

JPY still on the back foot – Japan CPI in focus
Risk sentiment remains positive after strong US data on Thursday
EUR/USD retains a downside bias
GBP risks on retail sales skewed to the upside
USD could benefit if housing starts robust despite hurricanes

Preview: Due October 18 - U.S. September Housing Starts and Permits - Picture improving but some risk from weather
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 2:48 PM UTC

We expect September housing starts to see a 1.9% decline to 1330k after a 9.6% August increase though without Hurricane Helene a rise would probably have been seen. We expect permits to rise by 0.7% to 1480k, extending a 4.6% August increase.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating September losses - studies under pressure
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 2:20 PM UTC

The break below 0.6700 is giving way to consolidation above support at 0.6645 Fibonacci retracement

U.S. October NAHB Homebuilders Index - Second straight gain after four straight declines
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 2:16 PM UTC

October’s NAHB homebuilders’ index has seen a second straight gain to 43 from 41 in a sign that Fed easing is having some impact, though the level remains quite subdued.

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Prices remain under pressure
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 2:11 PM UTC

Little change

Chart USD/JPY Update: Limited scope above 150.00
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 1:45 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend consolidation beneath congestion resistance at 150.00

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ECB Review: Inflation Outlook Lowered?
Freemium Article

October 17, 2024 1:45 PM UTC

The latest 25 bp rate cut from the ECB was obviously not anticipated at the previous meeting, although perhaps the Council was more open to such a move than the press conference then suggested.  But it is clear a reassessment is occurring, not just of the inflation outlook but the real economy too.

U.S. September Industrial Production - Up excluding impact of Boeing strike and hurricanes
Freemium Article

October 17, 2024 1:42 PM UTC

September industrial production was a little weaker than expected with a 0.3% decline, with manufacturing down by 0.4%, but the Fed stated that a strike at Boeing which started in mid-September took 0.3% off the total, and the impact of two Hurricanes took off an additional 0.3%, meaning a modestly

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Pressuring the 103.85 Fibonacci retracement
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 1:35 PM UTC

Consolidation has given way to a fresh break higher

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U.S. September Retail Sales continue to show resilience, Initial Claims correct lower
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 1:04 PM UTC

September retail sales show the consumer sustaining solid momentum through Q3 with a stronger than expected rise of 0.4% overall, 0.5% ex autos and impressive gains of 0.7% both ex autos and gasoline and in the control group that contributes to GDP. Initial claims in the survey week for October’s

USD flows: USD firmer on US data
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 12:44 PM UTC

USD/jpy breaks above 150 for the first time since July

EUR flows: EUR slips lower after ECB
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October 17, 2024 12:34 PM UTC

ECB essentially as expected but EUR remains soft

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Break higher in PLN-driven trade
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October 17, 2024 12:11 PM UTC

Consolidation has given way to a sharp break higher in PLN-driven trade

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Poised for further gains
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 11:29 AM UTC

Cautious trade has has given way to the anticipated break above the 17.6735 weekly high of 9 October

Europe Summary and Highlights 17 October
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 10:14 AM UTC

The USD was generally not much changed in a quiet European morning, making marginal gains against the JPY and CAD and marginal losses against the EUR.

Psychology for major markets October 17th
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 10:11 AM UTC

USD still firm awaiting ECB

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Central and Latin America: Country Risk Ratings
Freemium Article

October 17, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for select Central and Latin America countries.  

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Prices coming under pressure
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 9:56 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp fall

FX Daily Strategy: N America, October 17th
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 8:52 AM UTC

ECB meeting to deliver the expected rate cut
Hard to see much change in expectations, so EUR/USD to maintain mild downside bias
Risk slightly to the USD upside on US retail sales

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Further consolidation
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 8:10 AM UTC

Still little change

Chart USD/CHF Update: Edging higher
Freemium Article

October 17, 2024 8:05 AM UTC

The anticipated break above 0.8650 has reached 0.8670~

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Consolidating sharp gains
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 7:55 AM UTC

Sharp gains have met selling interest beneath strong resistance at 0.8400/03

Chart EUR/USD Update: Extending September losses
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 7:37 AM UTC

Little change, as prices remain under pressure

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending September losses
Freemium Article

October 17, 2024 7:25 AM UTC

Consolidation around 1.3000 has given way to the anticipated break

Chart EUR/NOK Update: Extending gains from 11.6050 lows
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 7:02 AM UTC

Bounce from the 11.6500 support to break the 11.8000 level has seen extension to reach the 11.8700 level

AUD, EUR flows: AUD recovers, EUR slips further
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 6:42 AM UTC

AUD up on strong Australian employment report. EUR/USD hits lowest since July

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Indonesia Country Risk
Freemium Article

October 17, 2024 6:30 AM UTC

We provide country risk review for Indonesia.  

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Lower in consolidation from the 195.95/195.70 highs
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 6:26 AM UTC

Edging lower from the 195.95/195.70 highs 

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Leaning lower from the 101.42 high
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 6:18 AM UTC

Leaning lower in consolidation from the 101.42 high

Chart USD/CNH Update: Consolidating, but room to extend gains
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 5:44 AM UTC

 Extending consolidation below the 7.1410 Fibonacci level 

Chart USD/INR Update: Weighing on the 84.0000/83.9850 support
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 5:29 AM UTC

 Leaning lower from the 84.0750 all-time high

Asia Summary and Highlights 17 October
Freemium Article

October 17, 2024 5:10 AM UTC

Australian September headline employment change +64.1k
Unemployment Rate 4.1%, Participation Rate 67.2%
Japan September exports -1.7% y/y & imports +2.1% 

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, October 17th
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 5:06 AM UTC

ECB meeting to deliver the expected rate cut
Hard to see much change in expectations, so EUR/USD to maintain mild downside bias
Risk slightly to the USD upside on US retail sales

AUD/USD flows: Another solid employment report
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 3:47 AM UTC

Australian September headline employment change +64.1k
Unemployment Rate 4.1%, Participation Rate 67.2%

Chart USD/MYR Update: Consolidating strong gains from the September low
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 3:25 AM UTC

 No follow-through on break above the 4.3080 resistance as prices consolidate strong run-up from the 4.1000, September low

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Extending pullback from 15694 high
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 3:11 AM UTC

Extending pullback from the 15694 high as prices unwind the overbought daily studies