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October 18, 2024
October 17, 2024
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, October 18th
October 17, 2024 9:00 PM UTC
JPY still on the back foot – Japan CPI in focus
Risk sentiment remains positive after strong US data on Thursday
EUR/USD retains a downside bias
GBP risks on retail sales skewed to the upside
USD could benefit if housing starts robust despite hurricanes
Brazil: Demand and Imported Prices Lead Inflation Rise
October 17, 2024 6:33 PM UTC
Our updated model shows that stronger-than-expected demand and BRL depreciation are driving Brazil’s inflation higher, while supply remains stable. Despite recent rate hikes, inflation expectations have risen, loosening monetary policy. We expect the BCB to implement two more 50 bps hikes before p
Preview: Due October24 - U.S. October S&P PMIs - Manufacturing slightly less weak, Services slightly less strong
October 17, 2024 3:11 PM UTC
We expect October’s S and P PMIs to show a marginal increase in manufacturing, to a still weak 47.5 from 47.3, and a marginal dip in services to a still healthy 55.0 from 55.2.
FX Daily Strategy: APAC, October 18th
October 17, 2024 2:59 PM UTC
JPY still on the back foot – Japan CPI in focus
Risk sentiment remains positive after strong US data on Thursday
EUR/USD retains a downside bias
GBP risks on retail sales skewed to the upside
USD could benefit if housing starts robust despite hurricanes
Preview: Due October 18 - U.S. September Housing Starts and Permits - Picture improving but some risk from weather
October 17, 2024 2:48 PM UTC
We expect September housing starts to see a 1.9% decline to 1330k after a 9.6% August increase though without Hurricane Helene a rise would probably have been seen. We expect permits to rise by 0.7% to 1480k, extending a 4.6% August increase.
ECB Review: Inflation Outlook Lowered?
October 17, 2024 1:45 PM UTC
The latest 25 bp rate cut from the ECB was obviously not anticipated at the previous meeting, although perhaps the Council was more open to such a move than the press conference then suggested. But it is clear a reassessment is occurring, not just of the inflation outlook but the real economy too.
U.S. September Industrial Production - Up excluding impact of Boeing strike and hurricanes
October 17, 2024 1:42 PM UTC
September industrial production was a little weaker than expected with a 0.3% decline, with manufacturing down by 0.4%, but the Fed stated that a strike at Boeing which started in mid-September took 0.3% off the total, and the impact of two Hurricanes took off an additional 0.3%, meaning a modestly
U.S. September Retail Sales continue to show resilience, Initial Claims correct lower
October 17, 2024 1:04 PM UTC
September retail sales show the consumer sustaining solid momentum through Q3 with a stronger than expected rise of 0.4% overall, 0.5% ex autos and impressive gains of 0.7% both ex autos and gasoline and in the control group that contributes to GDP. Initial claims in the survey week for October’s
