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November 20, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, November 21st
Paying Article

November 20, 2024 10:00 PM UTC

Quiet day for data, some focus on equity earnings
CHF strength continues to extend
JPY still has upside scope

Chart USD/SGD Update: Immediate gains to remain limited
Paying Article

November 20, 2024 5:03 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a break above 1.3400

Chart USD/CNH Update: Limited scope above 7.2500
Paying Article

November 20, 2024 4:47 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to the anticipated test of minor resistance at 7.2500

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, November 21st
Paying Article

November 20, 2024 4:42 PM UTC

Quiet day for data, some focus on equity earnings
CHF strength continues to extend
JPY still has upside scope

Chart USD/CAD Update: Limited gains - daily studies under pressure
Freemium Article

November 20, 2024 4:30 PM UTC

The test of support at the 1.3958 weekly high of 1-6 November has given way to a fresh bounce

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German Data Preview (Nov 28): Services Inflation Persists?
Paying Article

November 20, 2024 3:58 PM UTC

As we have repeatedly underlined, Germany’s disinflation process continues but unevenly.  After July saw the headline HICP rate rise and unexpected 0.1 ppt to 2.6%, unwinding a third of fall seen in June, it plummeted to a 41-month low of 2.0% in August, and then down to 1.8% last month, below th

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Gains to remain limited
Paying Article

November 20, 2024 2:01 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade following the bounce from above support at 106.00

Preview: Due November 21 - U.S. October Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales suggest a rise
Paying Article

November 20, 2024 2:00 PM UTC

We expect a 2.3% increase in October existing home sales to 3.93m, a moderate rise after declines of 1.0% in September and 2.0% in August, but sufficient to move yr/yr data above zero at 2.1% for the first time since July 2021.

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Immediate gains to remain limited
Paying Article

November 20, 2024 12:43 PM UTC

The break back above 18.0000 is extending

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

November 20, 2024 12:26 PM UTC

Cautious trade around 1.4800 has given way to anticipated losses

Europe Summary and Highlights 20 November
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November 20, 2024 12:01 PM UTC

The USD was generally stronger through the European morning.

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Eurozone: ECB Stability Review Broadens the Case for Easier Policy
Freemium Article

November 20, 2024 11:30 AM UTC

It seems that worries about weaker growth are reverberating more discernibly and more broadly within the ECB.  Indeed, the worries may now be at least twofold. Clearly, weaker growth risks possible (added) downside risks to inflation, with BoI Governor Panetta yesterday warning that restrictive mon

Psychology for major markets November 20th
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November 20, 2024 11:06 AM UTC

USD firmer as risk aversion fades

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Limited scope above 0.9350
Paying Article

November 20, 2024 10:18 AM UTC

Cautious trade above congestion support at 0.9300 has given way to a bounce to 0.9350

FX Daily Strategy: N America, November 20th
Paying Article

November 20, 2024 10:17 AM UTC

GBP firmer after CPI
JPY remains the favoured safe haven as risk appetite wanes on Russia concerns

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U.S. Equities: Exceptionalism v Valuations
Freemium Article

November 20, 2024 10:05 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Momentum towards further deregulation, tech optimism, and the prospect of aggressive tax cuts could help the U.S. equity market in H1 2025 before the fear of higher yields and Fed Funds hurts in H2.  6100 could be seen H1 2025, before a softening to 5850 for end 2025 S&P500.   We see

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Smart bounce
Paying Article

November 20, 2024 10:02 AM UTC

The break below 162.00 has bounced smartly from 161.48

Chart USD/CHF Update: Limited tests higher
Freemium Article

November 20, 2024 9:44 AM UTC

The anticipated test of support at the 0.8800 break level is giving way to a minor bounce

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Minor pullback
Paying Article

November 20, 2024 9:27 AM UTC

The pullback from congestion resistance at 0.8375 is extending in EUR-driven trade

Chart AUD/USD Update: Turning away from 0.6550
Paying Article

November 20, 2024 9:08 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have met renewed selling interest just beneath resistance at the 0.6550 break level

Chart USD/JPY Update: Smart bounce - strong resistance at 156.65
Paying Article

November 20, 2024 8:55 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have not been seen

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating - daily studies edging higher
Paying Article

November 20, 2024 8:35 AM UTC

Little change, as unwinding overbought intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart GBP/USD Update: Potential for a minor test higher
Freemium Article

November 20, 2024 8:24 AM UTC

Minor gains have met selling interest just beneath resistance at the 1.2720 break level

JPY flows: Sharp JPY decline looks excessive
Paying Article

November 20, 2024 8:01 AM UTC

JPY has reversed yesterday's gains but decline looks excessive

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UK CPI Review: Inflation Back Above Target & Core Pressures Higher
Freemium Article

November 20, 2024 7:42 AM UTC

Coming in higher than expected and a notch above BoE thinking, CPI inflation jumped to 2.3% in October. Helped by a fall in fuel prices and airfares, amplified by base effects, alongside some belated broader softening in services costs, UK inflation had dropped to 1.7% in the September CPI (from 2.2

GBP flows: Stronger CPI GBP supportive
Paying Article

November 20, 2024 7:32 AM UTC

GBP rises on stronger than expected October CPI

Asia Summary and Highlights 20 November
Freemium Article

November 20, 2024 4:57 AM UTC

USD/JPY reached 155 figure

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, November 20th
Paying Article

November 20, 2024 4:35 AM UTC

CAD under pressure ahead of Canadian CPI
Further modest losses possible but positioning is extreme
GBP could soften if BoE hints at possibility of December rate cut

AUD/USD flows: Westpac leading Index Shows Positive Signs
Paying Article

November 20, 2024 1:59 AM UTC

People's Bank of China leaves its interest rates unchanged as expected

USD/JPY flows: More import
Paying Article

November 20, 2024 12:40 AM UTC

Headline trade balance softer than estimate but details improves

November 19, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, November 20th
Paying Article

November 19, 2024 10:00 PM UTC

CAD under pressure ahead of Canadian CPI
Further modest losses possible but positioning is extreme
GBP could soften if BoE hints at possibility of December rate cut

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Turning down
Paying Article

November 19, 2024 5:16 PM UTC

The anticipated test of strong resistance at the 15940 Fibonacci retracement has given way to selling interest

Chart USD/SGD Update: Extending losses
Paying Article

November 19, 2024 5:08 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation just beneath congestion around 1.3400

Chart USD/CNH Update: Extending consolidation - daily studies under pressure
Paying Article

November 19, 2024 4:53 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend consolidation beneath minor resistance at 7.2500

Chart USD/MXN Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

November 19, 2024 4:32 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to the anticipated break lower

Chart USD/CAD Update: Lower in both USD- and CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

November 19, 2024 4:18 PM UTC

The anticipated break below 1.4000 is approaching support at the 1.3958 weekly high of 1-6 November in both USD- and CAD-driven trade

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, November 20th
Paying Article

November 19, 2024 3:48 PM UTC

CAD under pressure ahead of Canadian CPI
Further modest losses possible but positioning is extreme
GBP could soften if BoE hints at possibility of December rate cut

CAD flows: Stronger CPI CAD supportive
Paying Article

November 19, 2024 3:18 PM UTC

Canadian CPI on the strong side pushing USD/CAD sub-1.40

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

November 19, 2024 1:41 PM UTC

The anticipated break below 106.50 has reached 106.12

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Consolidating test below 18.0000 - daily studies under pressure
Paying Article

November 19, 2024 12:36 PM UTC

The anticipated break below 18.0000 has bounced from 17.9000~

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Studies turning down
Paying Article

November 19, 2024 12:14 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp break lower

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Brazil and Mexico Labour Productivity: A Headwind for Growth
Freemium Article

November 19, 2024 12:03 PM UTC

Brazil and Mexico labour productivity has been stagnant in the last years, with both countries registering lower labour productivity levels than they were 12 years ago, with the gap with U.S. only widening. With both countries approaching full-employment, measures will need to be taken to foster gro

Europe Summary and Highlights 19 November
Freemium Article

November 19, 2024 11:27 AM UTC

JPY and CHF strength were the main features of European morning trading, as risk sentiment suffered following Putin’s statement updating the Russian nuclear doctrine.

Psychology for major markets November 19th
Paying Article

November 19, 2024 11:11 AM UTC

Some risk aversion emerging on Russia/Ukraine concerns

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U.S.-Gilt Yields and Fed v BOE policy
Freemium Article

November 19, 2024 10:07 AM UTC

We see scope for 10yr UK yields to diverge from the U.S. despite our new forecast of rising U.S. Treasury yields (here).  We feel that the BOE will ease by more than the Fed in 2025 and ease selectively in 2026 before and after our forecast of Fed Funds hikes.  Meanwhile, the UK fiscal stance is l

FX Daily Strategy: N America, November 19th
Paying Article

November 19, 2024 10:05 AM UTC

CAD under pressure ahead of Canadian CPI
Further modest losses possible but positioning is extreme
GBP could soften if BoE hints at possibility of December rate cut

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

November 19, 2024 9:59 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to the anticipated break lower

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Room for lower
Paying Article

November 19, 2024 9:45 AM UTC

Choppy trade has given way to anticipated selling interest

Chart USD/CHF Update: Prices remain under pressure
Freemium Article

November 19, 2024 9:30 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached 0.8820

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Consolidating gains - studies improving
Paying Article

November 19, 2024 9:17 AM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion resistance at 0.8375 is giving way to a pullback