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June 23, 2025
Iran: Measured Next Steps?
June 23, 2025 3:17 PM UTC
A measured or modest Iran retaliation could be used by the U.S. to seek a path back towards negotiation. Israel would likely want to continue to degrade Iran nuclear and military facilities, but the U.S. could eventually pressure Israel to stop. This is our baseline, though the military attac
Preview: Due June 24 - U.S. Q1 Current Account - Deficit to surge but to reverse in Q2
June 23, 2025 2:57 PM UTC
We expect a record Q1 US current account deficit of $430bn, up from $303.9bn in Q4, which will probably be revised a little lower. The rise in the deficit will be largely on a pre-tariff surge in goods imports and is likely to be reversed in Q2. As a proportion of GDP the deficit would be 5.7%, up f
Preview: Due June 24 - Canada May CPI - BoC core rates to correct April's acceleration
June 23, 2025 2:51 PM UTC
We expect May Canadian CPI to see a marginal rise to 1.8% yr/yr from 1.7% in April, correcting a fall from 2.3% in March that was fully explained by the abolition of the consumer carbon tax. However, after an acceleration in April, we expect some slowing in the Bank of Canada’s core rates in May.
U.S. May Existing Home Sales - Underlying picture near flat
June 23, 2025 2:16 PM UTC
May existing home sales saw an unexpected 0.8% increase to 4.03m which follows a 0.5% fall in April to 4.00m which was also unexpected. This suggests a fairly subdued picture, but a more resilient one than some surveys, notably pending home sales and the NAHB index, have implied.
U.S. June S&P PMIs - Resilience suggests tariff worries have peaked
June 23, 2025 1:59 PM UTC
June’s preliminary S and P PMIs shows manufacturing unexpectedly sustaining an improved May level of 52.0, and while services slipped to 53.1 from 53.7, the index remains well above April’s weaker 50.8. This is consistent with tariff concerns being past their peak.
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German Data Preview (Jun 30): Calm Before the Storm?
June 23, 2025 10:29 AM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process continues, but there have been signs that the downtrend was flattening out and this impression may have been accentuated by the small and lower than expected (ie 0.1 ppt) drop in the headline in May to 2.1%, still an eight-month low (Figure 1). Adjusted data also s
DM Rates Outlook: Yield Curve Steepening?
June 23, 2025 8:30 AM UTC
• We see the U.S. yield curve steepening in the next 6-18 months. 2yr U.S. Treasury yields can step down with cautious Fed easing on a modest/moderate growth slowdown and also if the Fed keeps an easing bias in H2 2026. 10yr U.S. Treasury yields face a tug of war between lower short-dated y