View:
September 24, 2025
September 23, 2025
Preview: Due October 3 - U.S. September ISM Services - August bounce was flattered by seasonal adjustments
September 23, 2025 4:08 PM UTC
We expect slippage in September’s ISM services index to 51.0 from 52.0, still above the levels seen in May, June and July, but implying a subdued pace of economic growth.
Preview: Due October 1 - U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Firmer but still short of neutral
September 23, 2025 3:00 PM UTC
We expect September’s ISM manufacturing index to 49.0, returning to June’s level after rising to 48.7 in August from 48.0 in July. The index has not been above neutral since February.
DM FX Outlook: USD steadies but vulnerable to equity correction
September 23, 2025 2:48 PM UTC
· Bottom Line: The USD has continued to edge lower against the EUR in the last quarter as market expectations of Fed easing have increased following clear weakening in U.S. employment growth. But at this stage the data doesn’t indicate we are heading for recession, and this suggests w
German HICP Preview (Sep 30): Headline Higher But Core to Fall Further?
September 23, 2025 2:21 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process hit a slightly more-than-expected hurdle in August, as the HICP measure rose 0.3 ppt from July’s 1.8% y/y, that having been a 10-mth low (Figure 1). This occurred largely due to energy base effects with food prices also contributing slightly. The result was that
Preview: Due September 24 - U.S. August New Home Sales - Stable trend, downside risk
September 23, 2025 2:07 PM UTC
We expect an August new home sales level of 625k, which would be a 4.1% decline if July’s 0.6% decline to 652k is unrevised. The level would be the lowest since October 2023. Trend has been fairly stable but the NAHB survey suggests there may be some near term downside risk.
U.S. September S&P PMIs - Slower but still portraying a growing economy
September 23, 2025 1:59 PM UTC
September’s preliminary S and P PMIs are weaker than in August, manufacturing at 52.0 from 53.0 and services at 53.9 from 54.5, but still paint a picture of an economy growing at a respectable pace. The composite was 53.6 from 54.6.
US Q2 Current Account - Deficit falls sharply from pre-tariff record in Q1
September 23, 2025 12:50 PM UTC
The Q2 current account deficit of $251.3bn is slightly lower than expected and compares to a downwardly revised (though still record high) deficit of $439.8bn (from $450.2bn) in Q1. The Q2 deficit is the lowest since Q3 2023.
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Balancing Moderation with Resilience
September 23, 2025 11:22 AM UTC
· Asia’s growth trajectory in 2026 reflects regional resilience under strain. Investment-led economies like India and Malaysia are sustaining momentum via infrastructure push, public capex, and digital industrial policy, while Indonesia’s outlook is clouded by fiscal recalibration a
Europe Summary and Highlights 23 September
September 23, 2025 10:09 AM UTC
The USD traded lower against the JPY through the European morning, dropping 20 pips to 147.60, and against the AUD, with AUD/USD rising 15 pips to 0.6605, but only edged very slightly lower against the EUR, which pushed up just above 1.18. EUR/USD dipped early on in response to weaker than expected
Western Europe Outlook: Policy Divergences
September 23, 2025 9:54 AM UTC
· In the UK, we have upgraded 2025 growth by 0.2 ppt back to 1.0%, but pared back that for next year by a notch to a sub-par 0.8%. We think this will refresh somewhat stalled disinflation allowing the BoE to ease further into H1 by around 75 bp.
· Sweden has seen a clear e
Outlook Overview: Into 2026
September 23, 2025 8:25 AM UTC
· The critical question is how much the U.S. economy is slowing down with the feedthrough of President Donald Trump’s tariffs to boost inflation and restrain GDP growth, with the effective rate currently around 17% on U.S. imports. Though pharma tariffs are likely, the bulk of tariffs