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September 24, 2025

Chart EUR/USD Update: Pressuring 1.1800/30 resistance
Paying Article

September 24, 2025 1:20 AM UTC

Edging higher within the channel from the 1.1400 August low to retest resistance at the 1.1800/30 area

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Pressuring 174.50 high, scope for break
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September 24, 2025 1:02 AM UTC

Firm in range to pressure the 174.50 high 

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extend consolidation below 148.00
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September 24, 2025 12:46 AM UTC

Edged lower from the 148.38 Monday's high as prices consolidate bounce from the 145.48 low of last week

Chart AUD/USD Update: Extend consolidation above .6580 support
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September 24, 2025 12:24 AM UTC

Little change, as prices edged up from the .6580 support to consolidate sharp pullback from the .6707 high of last week

September 23, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Sep 24th
Paying Article

September 23, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

Japanese PMI could support rate hike expectations
JPY continues to look substantially undervalued
EUR might need above consensus IFO to hold current levels
US home sales data could renew USD downside pressure

North American Summary and Highlights 23 Sep
Freemium Article

September 23, 2025 7:47 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was slightly weaker, though held up better against the riskier currencies, after Fed’s Powell warned that there were no risk-free policy choices. 

U.S. Fed's Powell - Two-sided risks mean no risk-free path
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September 23, 2025 4:51 PM UTC

Fed's Powell sees sees risks on both sides of the mandate, with no pre-set path for policy.

Preview: Due October 3 - U.S. September ISM Services - August bounce was flattered by seasonal adjustments
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September 23, 2025 4:08 PM UTC

We expect slippage in September’s ISM services index to 51.0 from 52.0, still above the levels seen in May, June and July, but implying a subdued pace of economic growth. 

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, Sep 24th
Paying Article

September 23, 2025 3:10 PM UTC

Japanese PMI could support rate hike expectations
JPY continues to look substantially undervalued
EUR might need above consensus IFO to hold current levels
US home sales data could renew USD downside pressure

Preview: Due October 1 - U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Firmer but still short of neutral
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September 23, 2025 3:00 PM UTC

We expect September’s ISM manufacturing index to 49.0, returning to June’s level after rising to 48.7 in August from 48.0 in July. The index has not been above neutral since February.

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DM FX Outlook: USD steadies but vulnerable to equity correction
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September 23, 2025 2:48 PM UTC

·       Bottom Line: The USD has continued to edge lower against the EUR in the last quarter as market expectations of Fed easing have increased following clear weakening in U.S. employment growth. But at this stage the data doesn’t indicate we are heading for recession, and this suggests w

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German HICP Preview (Sep 30): Headline Higher But Core to Fall Further?
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September 23, 2025 2:21 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process hit a slightly more-than-expected hurdle in August, as the HICP measure rose 0.3 ppt from July’s 1.8% y/y, that having been a 10-mth low (Figure 1).  This occurred largely due to energy base effects with food prices also contributing slightly. The result was that

Preview: Due September 24 - U.S. August New Home Sales - Stable trend, downside risk
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September 23, 2025 2:07 PM UTC

We expect an August new home sales level of 625k, which would be a 4.1% decline if July’s 0.6% decline to 652k is unrevised. The level would be the lowest since October 2023. Trend has been fairly stable but the NAHB survey suggests there may be some near term downside risk. 

U.S. September S&P PMIs - Slower but still portraying a growing economy
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September 23, 2025 1:59 PM UTC

September’s preliminary S and P PMIs are weaker than in August, manufacturing at 52.0 from 53.0 and services at 53.9 from 54.5, but still paint a picture of an economy growing at a respectable pace. The composite was 53.6 from 54.6.

USD flows: US PMI has little impact
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September 23, 2025 1:49 PM UTC

US S&P PMI marginally weaker than expected, but no market impact

U.S. Fed's Bowman - Fed risks falling behind curve
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September 23, 2025 1:19 PM UTC

Fed Governor Bowman is still pushing for a more dovish stance despite not dissenting for more than 25bps at last week's meeting.

U.S. Fed's Goolsbee - Not thinking about 50bps cuts
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September 23, 2025 1:08 PM UTC

Fed's Goolsbee sounds cautious but will probably vote for two more 25bps moves this year. 

US Q2 Current Account - Deficit falls sharply from pre-tariff record in Q1
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September 23, 2025 12:50 PM UTC

The Q2 current account deficit of $251.3bn is slightly lower than expected and compares to a downwardly revised (though still record high) deficit of $439.8bn (from $450.2bn) in Q1. The Q2 deficit is the lowest since Q3 2023.

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Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Balancing Moderation with Resilience
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September 23, 2025 11:22 AM UTC

·       Asia’s growth trajectory in 2026 reflects regional resilience under strain. Investment-led economies like India and Malaysia are sustaining momentum via infrastructure push, public capex, and digital industrial policy, while Indonesia’s outlook is clouded by fiscal recalibration a

Psychology for major markets Sep 23
Paying Article

September 23, 2025 10:11 AM UTC

USD still mostly rangebound, GBP soft

Europe Summary and Highlights 23 September
Paying Article

September 23, 2025 10:09 AM UTC

The USD traded lower against the JPY through the European morning, dropping 20 pips to 147.60, and against the AUD, with AUD/USD rising 15 pips to 0.6605, but only edged very slightly lower against the EUR, which pushed up just above 1.18. EUR/USD dipped early on in response to weaker than expected

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Western Europe Outlook: Policy Divergences
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September 23, 2025 9:54 AM UTC

·       In the UK, we have upgraded 2025 growth by 0.2 ppt back to 1.0%, but pared back that for next year by a notch to a sub-par 0.8%. We think this will refresh somewhat stalled disinflation allowing the BoE to ease further into H1 by around 75 bp. 
·       Sweden has seen a clear e

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Sep 23rd
Paying Article

September 23, 2025 8:54 AM UTC

PMI data the focus but US data of limited interest
European data seen as more relevant
SEK resilient despite Riksbank rate cut
JPY weakness remains extreme

GBP, EUR flows: Weaker UK PMI triggers GBP decline
Paying Article

September 23, 2025 8:49 AM UTC

UK PMI dips, triggering GBP losses, but data is unreliable. Year's high in EUR/GBP at 0.8763 should hold

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Outlook Overview: Into 2026
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September 23, 2025 8:25 AM UTC

·       The critical question is how much the U.S. economy is slowing down with the feedthrough of President Donald Trump’s tariffs to boost inflation and restrain GDP growth, with the effective rate currently around 17% on U.S. imports. Though pharma tariffs are likely, the bulk of tariffs