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January 17, 2025
Preview: Due January 29 - U.S. December Advance Goods Trade Balance - Imports may rise ahead of tariffs
January 17, 2025 5:29 PM UTC
We expect an advance December trade deficit of $109.9bn, up from $103.5bn in November and marginally exceeding September’s $108.6bn to reach its highest level since March 2022.
SA Inflation Preview: Inflation Will Likely Slightly Rise in December
January 17, 2025 2:39 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Despite inflation stood at 2.9% YoY in November, we now foresee annual inflation will slightly accelerate to 3.1% - 3.2% in December due to rising fuel pieces, which will be announced on January 22. We feel unpredictable outlook for the global economy, increasing oil prices following th
U.S. December Industrial Production - Aircraft rebound but gains broad based
January 17, 2025 2:35 PM UTC
December industrial production has shown a stronger than expected 0.9% increase with manufacturing up by 0.6%. 0.2% of the increase came from aircraft as Boeing output recovered from a recent strike but the gains go well beyond that.
China: 5% for 2024 but Still Imbalanced into 2025
January 17, 2025 2:15 PM UTC
Though China hit the 2024 GDP growth target of 5.0%, monthly data shows the economy unbalanced. Industrial production/exports and state investment support the economy, with residential property investment negative and consumption sluggish. With monetary policy ineffective, we see Yuan3-5trn fis
U.S. December Housing Starts and Permits - Single family series see modest gains
January 17, 2025 1:54 PM UTC
December housing starts are much stronger than expected with a 15.8% rise to 1499k, unusually outperforming permits which fell 0.7% to 1483k. For the single-family sector, the contrast is much less stark, with starts up by 3.3% and permits up by 1.6%, suggesting a modestly positive trend.
Norges Bank Preview (Jan 23): A Message to Markets?
January 17, 2025 1:15 PM UTC
In its first meeting of the year, the Norges Bank is expected to keep rates on hold next Thursday. But it does have the choice of cutting rates, having flagged a move more likely at the meeting due in March, and could do this both to reflect weaker price pressures (especially excluding what are pr
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
January 17, 2025 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD as major equity index retreats after an upbeat earlier session. The biggest winners are TWD by 0.40%, THB 0.37%, CNH & PHP 0.02% and SGD by 0.01%; the largest loser are IDR by 0.24%, INR 0.22%, KRW 0.17%, MYR 0.09% and HKD by 0.01%.
USD/
January 16, 2025
Preview: Due January 17 - U.S. December Industrial Production - Bounce in aircraft to lead rise
January 16, 2025 3:54 PM UTC
We expect gains of 0.5% in both industrial production and manufacturing output in December, likely to be led by a rebound in aircraft after three straight declines caused by a strike at Boeing. The strike as resolved in early November but output failed to recover in that month, making a bounce due.
Preview: Due January 17 - U.S. December Housing Starts and Permits - Picture near flat, may weaken in 2025
January 16, 2025 3:49 PM UTC
We expect December housing starts to rise by 4.0% to 1.34m while permits fall by 3.5% to 1.44m. The starts rise will be following three straight declines while the permits fall will be correcting a 5.2% November increase. The underlying picture looks fairly flat.
Turkiye MPC Preview: CBRT will Likely Continue its Easing Cycle on January 23
January 16, 2025 3:09 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) lowered its key policy rate by 250 bps to 47.5% on December 26, we believe the rate cuts will continue during the MPC meeting scheduled for January 23. CBRT will likely reduce the policy rate by 250 bps to 45% as the deceleration trend in inflation c
Brazil: Fiscal Target will be Fulfilled but Doubts Remains over the Fiscal Sustainability
January 16, 2025 3:08 PM UTC
Brazil achieved significant fiscal consolidation in 2024, with a primary deficit of 0.6% of GDP, or 0.2% excluding flood-related costs, driven by revenue growth and reduced judicial expenditures. However, rising debt servicing costs, now at 8% of GDP, worsen the nominal result. Fiscal discipline wil
U.S. January NAHB Homebuilders Index - Resilient but six month view slips
January 16, 2025 3:07 PM UTC
January’s NAHB homebuilders’ index has unexpectedly risen to 47 from 46, unexpectedly resuming an uptrend after a pause in December and showing resilience to higher bond yields and fading expectations for Fed easing.
Preview: Due January 31 - U.S. December Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to match Core CPI
January 16, 2025 2:32 PM UTC
December’s personal income and spending report will be largely old news at the time of the release, with Q4 totals due with the GDP report on January 30. Ahead of the GDP data we expect a 0.2% increase in core PCE prices, and 0.4% gains in both personal income and spending.
India CPI Review: CPI Cools but Target Not in Sight
January 16, 2025 2:27 PM UTC
India’s retail inflation eased to a four-month low of 5.22% in December 2024, driven by a seasonal decline in food prices, particularly vegetables and cereals. With inflation within the RBI’s target range, all eyes are on the upcoming monetary policy review for potential rate cuts.
U.S. December Retail Sales - Trend still solid, Philly Fed surges in January
January 16, 2025 1:58 PM UTC
December retail sales with a 0.4% increase overall and ex auto, 0.3% ex autos and gasoline, are on the weak side of expectations but maintain respectable momentum, particularly in the control group which contributes to GDP, which rose by 0.7%. A strikingly strong January Philly Fed manufacturing ind
ECB December Council Meeting Account Review: The ‘Last Mile’ Appears to Have Shortened Somewhat?
January 16, 2025 1:27 PM UTC
As the account of the December 11-12 Council meeting noted, a fourth 25 bp discount rate cut was agreed but there appeared to be a minority wanting a 50 bp move. But this account also shows some confusion as to just what the advertised change in forward guidance (in which the ECB accepts that on-tar