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April 07, 2025
From Neutral to Accommodative? RBI Gears Up for Fresh Easing
07 April 2025 - 03:31
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on April 9, 2025, following a three-day meeting of its MPC. We anticipate a reduction of 25 basis points in the benchmark repo rate, bringing it down from 6.25% to 6%. This prospective cut would constitute the seco
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
07 April 2025 - 00:00
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD on Friday as the uncertainty from Trump's tariff persists. The biggest winner is PHP by 0.48%, followed by INR 0.24%, THB 0.17%, MYR 0.12% and HKD 0.05%; while the largest loser is SGD 0.99%, followed by KRW 0.75% and CNH 0.2%.
USD/CNH i
April 06, 2025
April 04, 2025
Argentina: Reserves Depleting, New Devaluation?
04 April 2025 - 18:28
Argentina's foreign reserves have recently fallen to USD 26 billion, the lowest since February 2024, largely due to Central Bank bond payments and difficulties acquiring USD. While internal demand recovers, imports are outpacing exports, complicating reserve accumulation. Additionally, maturing Cent
Preview: Due April 17 - U.S. March Housing Starts and Permits - Flat trend, weather still supportive
04 April 2025 - 16:59
We expect March housing starts to fall by 2.1% to 1470k, though this would leave them closer to February’s 1501k than January’s 1350k. It would also unusually remain above permits, which we expect to almost unchanged, up 0.1% to 1460k.
Canada March Employment - Consistent message of weakness
04 April 2025 - 13:22
Canada’s March employment with a 32.6k decline is the steepest fall since a brief plunge in the lockdowns of January 2012 and highlights the recessionary risks posed by US tariffs. Unemployment rose to 6.7% from 6.6% while wage growth slowed significantly, to 3.5% from 4.0%.
U.S. March Employment - A healthy picture, but can it persist?
04 April 2025 - 13:01
March’s non-farm payroll with a 228k increase is significantly higher than expected but less so net of 48k in downward revisions. The month looks like a bounce from two months restrained by bad weather, and shows a still strong labor market, though unemployment edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% and avera
Russia GDP Growth Loses Steam in the First Two Months of 2025
04 April 2025 - 09:14
Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development on April 3, Russia's GDP expanded by 0.8% YoY in February following a 3% YoY increase in January driven by military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. The softening of growth figures demonstrates monet
UK GDP Preview (Apr 11): Resilience in Spite of Soft(er) Surveys
04 April 2025 - 09:13
UK GDP Preview: Resilience in Spite of Soft(er) Surveys
Despite a fresh downside surprise for January numbers, the odds are increasing that current quarter GDP will be decidedly positive as opposed to the weak(ish) picture we perceive. This is all the more likely given the 0.1% m/m ‘recovery’ w