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November 06, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, November 7th
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 10:00 PM UTC

FOMC to cut rates but risks that expectations of a December cut are reduced
USD to extend gains, particularly versus the EUR
GBP vulnerable to increase in BoE easing expectations

North American Summary and Highlights 6 November
Freemium Article

November 6, 2024 8:02 PM UTC

Overview - After gaining sharply on the election results in Asia the USD stabilized in Europe and North America. 

Chart USD/MXN Update: Sharp gains pushed back from the 20.7630 Fibonacci retracement
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 5:39 PM UTC

Sharp gains have been pushed back from resistance at the 20.7630 long-term Fibonacci retracement

Chart USD/CAD Update: Smart reversal consolidating test of the 1.3958 current year high
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 4:56 PM UTC

The anticipated break below 1.3850 has bounced sharply from above congestion support at 1.3800

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, November 7th
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 4:20 PM UTC

FOMC to cut rates but risks that expectations of a December cut are reduced
USD to extend gains, particularly versus the EUR
GBP vulnerable to increase in BoE easing expectations

Chart AUD/USD Update: Choppy trade giving way to consolidation - background studies under pressure
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 2:46 PM UTC

The anticipated test of 0.6650 has given way to sharp losses to 0.6512~

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Further consolidation - daily studies under pressure
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 2:25 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above congestion support at 165.00

Chart USD/JPY Update: Approaching 155.00 in volatile USD- and JPY-driven trade
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 2:20 PM UTC

The sharp bounce from the 151.44 low of 25 October is extending in both USD- and JPY-driven trade

Preview: Due November 22 - U.S. November S&P PMIs - Manufacturing slightly weaker, Services still strong
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 1:23 PM UTC

We expect November’s S and P PMIs to show a marginal slippage in manufacturing to a still weak 48.0 from 48.5 but with services unchanged at a healthy 55.0. 

EUR, USD flows: History suggests modest USD gains
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 1:11 PM UTC

Rising US yields supported the USD in 2016, and are likely to do so again now, but erhpas less substantially. 

Chart EUR/USD Update: Focus on 1.0666
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 12:35 PM UTC

Choppy trade has given way to further losses

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Sharp reversal - strong resistance at the 17.8600 Fibonacci retracement
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 12:13 PM UTC

The anticipated fall towards support at the 17.3500 break level has given way to a sharp reactive bounce

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Sharply lower to the 1.4900 Fibonacci retracement - studies under pressure
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 11:42 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have broken sharply lower to the 1.4900 Fibonacci retracement

Psychology for major markets November 6th
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 11:27 AM UTC

USD gains on Trump/Republican victory

Europe Summary and Highlights 6 November
Freemium Article

November 6, 2024 11:21 AM UTC

After gaining sharply in Asia on the news of a Trump victory and a likely Republican clean sweep, the USD was generally little changed in Europe, but the AUD and scandis rallied somewhat after overnight losses and the CAD also slightly outperformed. 

EUR flows: EUR downside risks as 2 year yield drops
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 10:49 AM UTC

EUR 2 year yields drop after US election, possibly on tariff concers, suggesting EUR downside risks.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, November 6th
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 10:32 AM UTC

USD up on likely Republican clean sweep
JPY to struggle on the crosses short term
Initial USD gains might fade as policy actions may be delayed

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Choppy in range
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 10:02 AM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion support at 0.9350 has given way to a sharp bounce in heightened volatility

Chart USD/CHF Update: Sharp reversal higher - strong resistance at 0.8800
Freemium Article

November 6, 2024 9:28 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp break higher to the 0.8748 weekly high of 15 August

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Under pressure - strong support at 0.8295/00
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 8:54 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to the anticipated fall

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Sharp reversal - resistance at 105.50
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 8:41 AM UTC

The test of support at the 103.40 break level has given way to a sharp bounce to 105.30~

Chart EUR/USD Update: Sharp fall - studies under pressure
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 8:30 AM UTC

Anticipated selling interest around 1.0930 has led to a sharp fall

Chart GBP/USD Update: Sharp losses pressuring the 1.2865 Fibonacci retracement
Freemium Article

November 6, 2024 8:20 AM UTC

Anticipated selling interest within the 1.3043/50 area has given way to a sharp fall

USD flows: USD up on likely Republican clean sweep
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 7:32 AM UTC

USD up as Trump victory seems assured with the Republicans also likely to win both houses of Congress. JPY to suffer most initially on risk positive move 

Chart USD/JPY Update: Poised to extend gains
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 7:18 AM UTC

Turned up sharply from 151.28 low to retrace all the losses from the 153.88 high of last week

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U.S. Election – Initial Thoughts
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 6:54 AM UTC

A Trump victory is now widely expected with results so far and has prompted knee jerk reaction in markets with U.S. Treasury yields and USD higher.  Policy uncertainty is high over tariffs, though the 2017 tax cuts will likely be renewed with some additional tax cuts elsewhere -- House race is tigh

Chart GBP/USD Update: Sharp pullback return focus to 1.2844 low
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 6:53 AM UTC

Rejection from strong resistance at 1.3045 July high see sharp drop to threaten the 1.2844, October low

Chart EUR/USD Update: Under pressure, 1.0700 level at risk
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 6:30 AM UTC

Reversal from the 1.0935 Fibonacci level saw sharp plunge through the 1.0761 October low

Chart AUD/USD Update: Reversal turn focus to .6500/.6488 support
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 6:10 AM UTC

Sharply lower following rejection from the .6645 high with the outside range retracing all of the gains from the .6537 low of last week

Chart USD/INR Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 5:33 AM UTC

Sharply higher to extend the break of the 84.1000 figure at the start of the week to reach fresh all-time high at 84.2025

Asia Summary and Highlights 6 November
Freemium Article

November 6, 2024 5:02 AM UTC

Trump in favor from early polls
USD triumphs major FX

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, November 6th
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 4:54 AM UTC

Focus on US election
Trump win likely to be a small USD positive, Harris win a bigger USD negative
Clean sweep for Republicans would likely be more of a USD boost

AUD/USD flows: King Dollar Is Back
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 3:59 AM UTC

USD triumphs major FX

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Extending gains
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 3:35 AM UTC

Follow-through above the 15800 level has seen gains to fill the gap at the 15829 low of 13 August

Chart USD/THB Update: Poised for break of 34.00 Fibonacci level
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 3:12 AM UTC

Rebound from the 33.54 low see prices retracing pullback from the 34.00 figure

USD/JPY flows: Trump Trade Cheers
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 3:08 AM UTC

Market cheers on Trump seemingly passed North Carolina

Chart USD/KRW Update: Rebound return focus to 1395.00/1400.00 highs
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 2:57 AM UTC

Consolidation above the 1370.00 support has given way to sharp break above the 1690.00/1393.00 resistance to extend gains from the September low

Chart USD/SGD Update: Rebound return focus to 1.3240/1.3264 highs
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 2:24 AM UTC

Sharp bounce from the 1.3132 threatens reversal of losses from the 1.3264 high of last week

USD/JPY flows: Back to Trump Trade
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 1:56 AM UTC

Trump Trade resumes as early polls favor Trump

Chart GBP/USD Update: Gains stalled at the 1.3045 resistance
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 1:56 AM UTC

Gains stalled on retest of strong resistance at 1.3045, July high

Chart EUR/USD Update: Sharp rejection from the 1.0935 Fibonacci level
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 1:41 AM UTC

Sharply lower following rejection from the 1.0935, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Drifting within a narrow range above 165.00
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 1:24 AM UTC

Little change, as prices remains within a narrow range above the 165.00 level

Chart USD/JPY Update: Sharp bounce from 151.28, intraday low
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 1:06 AM UTC

Turned up sharply from 151.28 intrtaday low as prices unwind oversold intraday studies

Chart NZD/USD Update: Still limited above the .6000/15 resistance
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 12:30 AM UTC

Edged higher in choppy trade from the .5940 low gains struggling to clear the .6000/15 resistance

Chart AUD/USD Update: Room to extend gains
Paying Article

November 6, 2024 12:13 AM UTC

Consolidation below the .6600/15 resistance has given way to break higher to extend gains from the .6537 low

November 05, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, November 6th
Paying Article

November 5, 2024 10:00 PM UTC

Focus on US election
Trump win likely to be a small USD positive, Harris win a bigger USD negative
Clean sweep for Republicans would likely be more of a USD boost

North American Summary and Highlights 5 November
Freemium Article

November 5, 2024 8:27 PM UTC

Overview -
The USD was softer despite strong ISM services data, the move seen due to position squaring ahead of the election results.

...
Banxico Preview: Continuing to Cut at 25bps Pace
Freemium Article

November 5, 2024 7:45 PM UTC

Mexico's Central Bank (Banxico) is expected to proceed with a 25 basis-point rate cut on Oct. 10, bringing the policy rate to 10.0%. Banxico remains focused on core CPI, which is gradually decreasing toward its 3.0% target. While some previously anticipated a 50 basis-point cut, consensus now favors

...
Bank of Canada Minutes Show Strong Consensus For Larger 50bps Move
Paying Article

November 5, 2024 6:58 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its meeting on October 23, which accelerated the pace of easing to 50bps, to 3.75%, after three straight meetings in which the rate was eased by 25bps.  While members considered another 25bps move, there was a strong consensus for taking a larger step.