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April 25, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 25 April
Freemium Article

April 25, 2025 7:30 PM UTC

Overview - In a fairly quiet day’s trading, the main move was a bounce in EUR/JPY. 

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Canada Election: Liberal Victory Likely, Stable Policy Expected
Freemium Article

April 25, 2025 4:21 PM UTC

Canada’s election takes place on Monday. A victory for the ruling Liberals looks likely, but polls are close enough to mean that a hung parliament or even a majority for the opposition Conservatives, while unlikely, is not to be ruled out. Should the Conservatives spring a surprise, a more concili

Chart USD/SGD Update: Cautious trade
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 4:20 PM UTC

The pullback towards congestion support at 1.3100 is giving way to a minor bounce

Chart USD/CNH Update: Consolidating - studies leaning lower
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 4:13 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade within the 7.2765 - 7.3000 range

Chart USD/CAD Update: Range extension
Freemium Article

April 25, 2025 4:07 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed/negative intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

FX Weekly Strategy: April 28th - May 2nd
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 3:24 PM UTC

General risk recovery may be near an end
US GDP to be more significant than employment data
JPY correction likely to be near complete
EUR could benefit from relative GDP strength
CAD may be vulnerable if Liberals retain power
NOK has scope to return to end March levels

USD, JPY flows: JPY weaker after UMich data
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 2:23 PM UTC

University of Michigan sentiment data shows further weakness in confidence and further rise in inflation expectations, but moves slightly smaller than expected. JPY correction lower looks near complete

U.S. April Final Michigan CSI - Upward revision largely on short term thinking
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 2:11 PM UTC

April’s Final Michigan CSI of 52.2 is less weak than the preliminary 50.8 but still well below March’s 57.0, and a third straight monthly decline.

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CBR Continues to Keep Key Rate Constant at 21% Despite Surging Inflation
Freemium Article

April 25, 2025 1:56 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) held the policy rate stable on April 25 for the fourth consecutive time to combat price pressures. CBR indicated in its written statement that CBR will maintain monetary conditions as tight as necessary to return inflation to the target

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 1:44 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a test lower

Canada February Retail Sales - Slippage from strong December continues, but March seen firmer
Freemium Article

April 25, 2025 12:47 PM UTC

Canada’s February retail sales with a 0.4% decline are in line with a preliminary estimate made with January’s data but saw a stronger than expected 0.5% increase ex autos. Despite growing downside economic risks, the preliminary estimate for March is surprisingly positive, with a rise of 0.7%.

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Further gains to remain limited
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 12:08 PM UTC

The anticipated break above 18.7250 has reached 18.9100~

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Extending consolidation - daily studies tracking lower
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 11:09 AM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath congestion resistance at 1.5800

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Further gains to remain limited
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 10:51 AM UTC

The anticipated test of resistance at the 0.9435 Fibonacci retracement is giving way to expected consolidation

Europe Summary and Highlights 25 April
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 10:18 AM UTC

The USD was mixed in a fairly quiet European morning session.

Psychology for major markets April 25th
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 10:17 AM UTC

Quieter markets as progress on trade deals awaited

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

April 25, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

All Eyes Remain on Trump
First Sign of De-escalation between U.S. and China?
Fed Speakers latest View
Minor Rebound for the USD
USD/JPY Continue to Chop

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Higher in range - studies improving
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 9:10 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to the anticipated test higher

Chart USD/CHF Update: Pressuring 0.8300 - daily studies rising
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 8:58 AM UTC

Little change, as minor intraday losses give way to a bounce back to congestion resistance at 0.8300

FX Daily Strategy: N America, April 25th
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 8:53 AM UTC

JPY might struggle despite rise in Tokyo CPI
GBP has scope to recover modestly
USD may struggle if University of Michigan confidence weakens again

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Consolidating - limited tests higher
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 8:47 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 8:26 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a fresh test lower

Chart AUD/USD Update: At range highs - studies improving
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 8:08 AM UTC

The anticipated break below support at 0.6360 has not been seen

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating - daily studies rising
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 7:59 AM UTC

The anticipated minor test lower has bounced from 142.30

Chart EUR/USD Update: Cautious trade - studies under pressure
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 7:39 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath congestion resistance at 1.1400

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating gains - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

April 25, 2025 7:30 AM UTC

The test above 1.3300 has met anticipated selling interest below congestion around 1.3400

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U.S/China Trade Standoff: Odds Remain Towards Truce
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 7:09 AM UTC

  On balance, our baseline still remains a U.S./China trade deal (55-60%) being reached, given Trump deal instincts; China desire for a deal and the economic disadvantage of an economic cold war to the U.S. when it is trying to reset trade with all countries.  Timeline is Q4 2025 or H1 2026. An al

GBP flows: Little changed on strong retail sales
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 6:46 AM UTC

UK retial sales were strong in March, but were partly weather affected. GBP little affected as Q1 strength is expected to fade

Asia Summary and Highlights 25 April
Freemium Article

April 25, 2025 5:04 AM UTC

Japan April Tokyo CPI Above 3%

AUD/USD flows: Risk upbeat
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 4:01 AM UTC

Risk asset upbeat on Friday
China said to weigh exempting some US goods from tariffs as costs rise

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, April 25th
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 3:45 AM UTC

JPY might struggle despite rise in Tokyo CPI
GBP has scope to recover modestly
USD may struggle if University of Michigan confidence weakens again

USD/JPY flows: Tokyo CPI Hot
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 2:21 AM UTC

Japan April Tokyo CPI Above 3%

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD with the broad risk sentiment rebounds from earlier drop. The biggest winner is MYR by 0.38%, followed by SGD 0.36%, INR 0.18%, HKD 0.02% and PHP 0.01%; while the largest losers are KRW by 0.42%, followed by TWD 0.12%, CNH 0.07%, THB 0.

April 24, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, April 25th
Paying Article

April 24, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

Scope for USD recovery to extend on solid durable orders data
German IFO stronger than expected
USD recovery still only likely to be short term
CHF can weaken further against the NOK

North American Summary and Highlights 24 April
Freemium Article

April 24, 2025 7:44 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was weaker in Europe but more stable in North America, if with some late losses.  

Preview: Due May 5 - U.S. April ISM Services - A correction higher within a weakening picture
Paying Article

April 24, 2025 7:34 PM UTC

We expect April’s ISM services index to correct higher to 51.5 after March saw a fall to a 9-month low of 50.8 from 53.5 in February. 

Preview: Due May 1 - U.S. April ISM Manufacturing - Further slippage seen
Paying Article

April 24, 2025 4:51 PM UTC

We expect an April ISM manufacturing index of 48.0, which would be the weakest since October. While the S and P manufacturing index saw an unexpected rise in April most regional manufacturing surveys have been weak, the Philly Fed particularly so. 

Chart USD/SGD Update: Consolidating - gains to remain limited
Paying Article

April 24, 2025 3:42 PM UTC

Minor gains have not been sustained

Chart USD/CNH Update: Cautious trade - studies leaning lower
Paying Article

April 24, 2025 3:27 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade within the 7.2765 - 7.3000 range

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, April 25th
Paying Article

April 24, 2025 3:08 PM UTC

Scope for USD recovery to extend on solid durable orders data
German IFO stronger than expected
USD recovery still only likely to be short term
CHF can weaken further against the NOK

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - limited tests higher
Freemium Article

April 24, 2025 3:04 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

U.S. Fed's Waller - Tarrifs may cause job loss, and argue for easing
Paying Article

April 24, 2025 2:22 PM UTC

Fed's Waller continues his recent dovish tone, worries about tariffs causing job losses

U.S. March Existing Home Sales - February bounce more than fully earsed
Paying Article

April 24, 2025 2:12 PM UTC

March existing home sales with a 5.9% fall to 4.02m are the weakest since September and contrast a strong month from new home sales, leaving the overall housing picture unclear. The data does follow weakness in recent pending home sales data and other survey evidence.

U.S. Fed's Hammack - May too early, could move in June
Paying Article

April 24, 2025 1:06 PM UTC

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack is not ready to ease but sounds less hawkish than was the case in February.

USD flows: Durables strong but core neutral, USD steady
Paying Article

April 24, 2025 12:59 PM UTC

Stronger durables were due to aircraft, and it's hard to see much FX action into the end of the week, although declining volatility may favour the riskier currencies

U.S. March Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft surge, ex transport subdued, Initial Claims still low
Paying Article

April 24, 2025 12:51 PM UTC

March durable goods orders have risen by an exceptional 9.2%, though an unchanged ex transport figure suggests a subdued underlying picture. The transport rise was led by aircraft, though autos also increased. Initial claims rose to 222k from 216k, but remain consistent with a healthy labor market.

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Limited tests higher
Paying Article

April 24, 2025 12:25 PM UTC

The anticipated bounce following the test of support at the 18.4800 Fibonacci retracement and the 18.5000 break level is currently pressuring congestion resistance at 18.7250

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Cautious trade - daily studies tracking lower
Paying Article

April 24, 2025 11:57 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath congestion resistance at 1.5800

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Balanced around 0.9400 - daily studies rising
Paying Article

April 24, 2025 11:20 AM UTC

 Little change, as prices extend consolidation around congestion resistance at 0.9400

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India Redraws Its Red Lines with Pakistan
Freemium Article

April 24, 2025 10:24 AM UTC

In one of the deadliest attacks in Kashmir in years, 26 Hindu tourists were killed by Pakistan-backed militants in Pahalgam. India has responded by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, expelling Pakistani nationals, and downgrading diplomatic ties — signalling a hard shift in its Pakistan policy. T