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April 02, 2025
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
April 2, 2025 12:10 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly weaker against the USD despite the global market braces for the impact of Trump's latest tariff. The only winner is KRW by 0.05%; while the largest losers are THB 0.53%, followed by CNH 0.2%, CNY 0.18%, SGD 0.11%, TWD 0.03% and HKD 0.01%.
USD/CNH is trading h
April 01, 2025
U.S. February Job Openings, March ISM Manufacturing - Worrying detail, though not yet a clear trend
April 1, 2025 2:33 PM UTC
February’s JOLTS report on labor turnover does not make positive reading, with falls in openings and quits but a rise in layoffs, though the volatility of the series calls for caution. March ISM manufacturing data is weaker, at 49.0 from 50.3, but prices but with prices paid up sharply to 69.4 fro
Preview: Due April 2 - U.S. March ADP Employment - February weakness may prove erratic
April 1, 2025 1:40 PM UTC
We expect a 125k increase in March’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, stronger than February’s weak 77k that significantly underperformed the non-farm payroll, but still below the pre-February trend. Initial claims suggest the labor market remains healthy.
Chart AUD/USD Update: Choppy trade - daily studies under pressure
April 1, 2025 1:34 PM UTC
Asterisk denotes strength of level
14:25 BST - Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious and extend choppy trade around support at the 0.6250 break level. Daily readings are falling and overbought weekly stochastics are unwinding, highlighting room for a fresh test be
Preview: Due April 10 - U.S. March CPI - Gasoline softer, but upside risk on core rate
April 1, 2025 1:00 PM UTC
We expect March to increase by a subdued 0.1% overall but by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the core rate likely to be on the firm side at 0.335% before rounding. This will follow core rates of 0.2% in February and 0.4% in January, both of which were rounded down.
The Hope for A Peace Deal in Ukraine is Tested
April 1, 2025 9:55 AM UTC
Bottom Line: As negotiations to end the war in Ukraine continue, we foresee a Russia-friendly peace deal (70% probability) in Ukraine could be sealed in 9-12 months following a cease-fire under current circumstances. In this scenario, we envisage Russia will continue to annex areas in and around fo
EZ Data Review: Headline Edges Lower Again With Friendlier Services and Labor Market Messages?
April 1, 2025 9:45 AM UTC
Largely as expected, there was more supportive news in the March flash HICP numbers (Figure 1), with the headline down a notch and core down 0.2 ppt (the former to 2.2% and hence the lowest since last autumn). Perhaps more notably services inflation slowed more clearly, dropping 0.3 ppt to 3.4%, a