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Published: 2024-04-25T19:48:07.000Z

North American Summary and Highlights 25 Apr

byDave Sloan

Senior Economist , North America
1

Overview - The USD ended slightly weaker, as gains on stronger than expected Q1 core PCE price data were erased. 

North American session

A weaker than expected 1.6% US GDP increase saw only a very brief knee-jerk USD dip, EUR/USD reaching 1.0739, given a stronger than expected 3.7% rise in the core PCE price index. With UST yields higher the USD advanced, with EUR/USD bottoming at 1.0678, though the USD gains were subsequently erased, with EUR/USD again touching its earlier high.

Most currencies showed similar moves to EUR/USD though USD/JPY kept to a right range near 155.55 while CAD slightly outperformed AUD, as AUD/CAD fell to .89.

US GDP details showed negatives from net exports and inventories, with domestic demand still solid. This was reflected in a wider March advance goods trade deficit. Other US data showed initial claims falling to 207k from 212k and later a stronger than expected 3.4% rise in pending home sales. 

European morning session

The European morning saw general gains for the riskier currencies, with GBP and the AUD the best performers. GBP/USD rose around 0.4% to 1.2515, while AUD/USD gained 0.3% to 0.6525. EUR/USD was also firmer, rising 0.2% to 1.0725. USD/JPY rose modestly to 155.65 but remained below the late Asia high of 155.74. The MNOK slightly outperformed the EUR, while EUR/SEK was steady.

The morning saw strong Swedish data, with improvements in manufacturing and business confidence and a rise in the economic tendency survey index to its highest since August 2022, but this failed to boost the SEK. The French INSEE business survey was a little disappointing, with the index dropping back after two months of gains, while the German consumer confidence index rose slightly more than expected to its best since March 2022. 

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