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Published: 2024-03-06T11:02:58.000Z

Psychology for major markets Mar 6

byAdrian Schmidt

Senior FX Strategist
-

Still mostly rangebound with a mildly softer USD tone. Powell testimony, ECB and employment report may move markets this week

EUR/USD – EUR/USD still holding the 1.08 -1.09 range, having survived a test of the bottom end. Hard to see a near term break, but focus on Powell on Wednesday, the ECB on Thursday and the US employment report Friday, all of which could trigger a significant move.

USD/JPY – USD/JPY dipping below 150 on more talk of BoJ tightening. Yield spreads continue to suggests downside risks, but BoJ action may be needed to trigger a more significant move.

EUR/GBP- GBP still stuck close to 0.8550. Mild upside bias seen given greater risks of a downward repricing of UK rate outlook. UK Budget likely to be neutral for monetary policy.

AUD/USD – AUD hovering around 0.65 with sentiment still dependent on global equity sentiment, but 0.6450-0.6550 range likely to hold near term.

EUR/CHF – CHF continuing to weaken with EUR/CHF reaching its highest since early December. More upside still possible as SNB remain one of the more dovish central banks.

Equities – US markets remaining close to all time highs helped by strong corporate earnings, but may be vulnerable to any further decline in easing expectations. Focus on Powell testimony and employment report.

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