U.S. and Canada report stronger trade balances in June, but still weaker in Q2
June’s US trade deficit if $73.1bn was marginally higher than expected though down from $75.0bn in May. While June’s deficit is narrower than those seen in April and May it is still wider than those seen in each month of both Q1 2024 and the whole of 2023.
Goods data was in line with the signals of the advance report, with exports up by 2.6% rather than 2.7% and imports remaining up by 0.7%, both correcting from declines seen in May. In real terms goods exports rose by a strong 3.2% while goods imports rose by 0.9%.
The services surplus slipped to a 4-month low, with exports down by 0.5% and imports up by 0.2%, leaving exports up by 0.6% overall while imports rose by 0.6%.
Canada also reported stronger trade data in June, with the C$0.64bn surplus the first surplus since February, and up from a C$1.61bn deficit in May.
Canadian exports surged by 5.5% and imports rose by 1.9%, with the respective gains in real terms being 3.8% and 1.3%. In Q2 however real exports fell by 0.4% while real imports rose by 0.3% (both not annualized), implying a negative contribution to Q2 GDP.
