Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March ISM Services - Keeping to a stable trend
We expect March’s ISM services index to be almost unchanged at 52.5 from February’s 52.6, which looked like a return to trend after a stronger 53.4 in January corrected a weaker 50.5 in December.
The S and P services index has seen two straight declines after four straight gains, probably in response to bond yields, but is not a reliable guide to ISM services data. Regional Fed service surveys have been mixed, with weaker data from the Dallas, Kansas City and Philly Feds but improvements in Richmond and the Empire State.
We expect slippage in new orders and business activity in corrections from February improvements to be balanced by advances in employment and deliveries after slowing seen in February, completing the breakdown of the composite. Prices paid do not contribute to the composite. Here we expect a rise to 60.0 after February’s 58.6 corrected a significantly stronger 64.0 in January.
