Preview: Due June 5 - U.S. April Trade Balance - Deficit to plunge as imports reverse pre-tariff surge
We expect April’s trade deficit to plunge to $66.4bn, which would be the lowest since December 2023, from a record $140.5bn in March. We expect a healthy 2.1% increase from exports and a plunge of 16.3% in imports, correcting Q1 strength seen ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement.
On a yr/yr basis exports would be up 8.3% and imports up 3.6%, still positive after growth of over 20% in Q1. While exports straight may be hard to sustain, imports have scope to extend their correction lower, and that would be supportive for Q2 GDP, as net exports reverse a sharp negative in Q1.
We expect goods to see a 3.4% increase in exports and a 19.8% fall in imports, both consistent with advance goods data already released. We expect services to show a fifth straight decline in the surplus, with exports down by 0.5% and imports up by 0.5%, as visits to the US continue to slip on negative political sentiment.
