Preview: Due December 20 - U.S. November Existing Home Sales - A smaller decline
We expect existing home sales to see a modest 0.8% decline to 3.76m in November to follow a 4.1% decline in October that was the steepest since November 2022. The level will be the weakest since August 2010.
After a steep fall in August pending home sales saw little change in September and October, and a move in mortgage rates off their highs may be providing some support. However survey evidence from the MBA and NAHB suggested housing demand remained weak in October. We expect a correction in the South (the largest region) from a particularly steep 7.1% decline in October to restrain the size of November's decline.
We expect the median price to fall by 1.0% on the month, which would be a fifth straight decline. However these declines are in part seasonal and yr/yr growth would then pick up to 4.1% from 3.4%, a sixth straight acceleration from a May low of -3.0%.