U.S. December Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft slip on seasonal adjustments, ex transport trend marginally positive
December durable goods orders are weaker than expected on the headline with a 2.2% decline though ex transport with a 0.3% rise is in line with consensus, if not particularly impressive coming after a 0.2% November decline.
The headline was depressed by a 45.7% fall in civil aircraft, a component that actually increased before seasonal adjustment, suggesting the dip will prove temporary. Autos were only a marginal negative, down by 0.2%, while defense, which has a large overlap with transport, also had little impact. Orders ex defense fell by 2.4%, a slightly sharper fall than the headline.
The modest ex transport gains may come as a slight disappointment given firmer ISM manufacturing new orders in December, though trend is marginally positive, with gains seen in four of the last five months.
Non-defense capital orders ex aircraft, with a rise of 0.5% after a 0.9% gain in November outperformed, a positive signal for business investment. Shipments in the sector rose by 0.5%, while inventories rise by 0.4%, both mildly supportive for the Q4 GDP picture.
