Argentina: Third Place Bulrich Announce Milei’s Support
Patricia Bullrich, from 'Juntos por el Cambio', has backed Javier Milei, diverging from her coalition. While Milei gains support, winning over Bullrich's voters remains a challenge. Despite economic instability favoring Milei, our projections still favor Sergio Massa to win with 60% probability. Fractures within the coalition could alter the political landscape post-election, with implications for legislative dynamics in 2025.
Patricia Bullrich, the presidential candidate for 'Juntos por el Cambio' and the third-place contender in the elections, has recently announced her personal endorsement of Javier Milei. Notably, this decision stands independently from the stance of the remaining factions within the coalition. 'Juntos por el Cambio' is a coalition comprising three main political parties: PRO, headed by Bullrich; UCV; and ARI. The latter two have affirmed their neutrality in the race and have pledged to serve as the opposition to the eventual victor.
The implications of Bullrich's sudden allegiance extend beyond the immediate horizon, delving into the longer-term political landscape. While her support undoubtedly bolsters Milei's position, the conversion of over 90% of Bullrich's supporters remains a challenging task for Milei. At present, our projections still favor Sergio Massa, with a 60% probability of winning, compared to Milei's 40%. However, the prevailing economic instability in Argentina, characterized by an alarming annual inflation rate of 140% and a subpar growth rate below 2.0% this year, works in Milei's favor.
The nature of the campaigns that both candidates will undertake remains to be seen. Given our anticipation of a closely contested election, every single vote will hold significant weight. We expect Milei to start to soften his rhetoric while Massa’s campaign is likely to focus on Milei radical positions and his similiarities. Concerns regarding the unity within “Juntos por el Cambio” are beginning to surface in the long term. As the second most influential force in the Legislative branch and the party with the most provincial governors, any fractures within the coalition could question its sustainability and relevance. Should Sergio Massa emerge victorious, we anticipate the bloc to maintain its cohesiveness, forming an opposition coalition independent of Milei's party. Conversely, if Milei secures the win, the coalition is likely to splinter, potentially fueling Milei's momentum as his support in the legislature grows. Notably, half of the Chamber of Deputies will undergo renewal at the end of 2025, potentially prompting a significant power shift. Such a development assumes even greater significance in the event of Milei's triumph.