Preview: Due September 10 - U.S. August PPI - A moderate gain after a surge in July
We expect August PPI to rise by 0.3% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, moderate gains after shocking surges of 0.9% in each series in July, which broke a string of mostly subdued outcomes from February through June. Ex food, energy and trade, we expect a 0.3% increase to follow a 0.6% rise in July.
We expect goods ex food and energy to rise by 0.4% for the second straight month, continuing to accelerate as tariffs feed through. Trend in the first half of the year was 0.3% per month while trend in the second half of 2024 was on the low side of 0.2% per month. We expect overall goods prices to also rise by 0.4%, though we expect both food and energy to be slightly firmer at 0.5%.
July’s 1.1% rise in services PPI was particularly shocking and probably needs to be seen alongside a 0.1% decline in June. We expect a rise of only 0.2% in August. Trade is particularly vulnerable to a correction after a surge of 2.0% in July, so we expect ex food, energy and trade PPI at 0.3% to slightly outperform the 0.2% ex food and energy gain, after underperforming in July.
We expect yr/yr growth of 3.2% in overall PPI, marginally below July’s 3.3% but well above June’s 2.4%. Ex food and energy we expect a 3.4% yr/yr pace in August, down from 3.7% in July but up from 2.6% in June. Ex food, energy and trade however we expect a 2.9% yr/yr pace versus 2.8% in July and 2.5% in June.
