Preview: Due April 18 - U.S. March Existing Home Sales - Correcting a sharp February increase
We expect existing home sales to see a 3.0% March decline to 4.25m, correcting a 9.5% February increase that was similar to a sharp 11.3% rise in February 2023. The February 2023 surge was subsequently gradually reversed over several months, with March 2023 falling by 4.0%.
The February 2024 surge was much sharper than suggested by pending home sales data, which is designed to predict existing home sales, and housing sector data has been mixed. Generally there is no strong trend, but the NAHB homebuilders’ survey continued to move higher in March. We expect corrections lower in three of the four regions for existing home sales, the exception being a rise in the Northeast after three straight flat months.
We expect the median existing home sales price to rise by a strong 3.5% on the month, extending the 1.6% rise of February which was the first in eight months with the spring acceleration being largely seasonal. Yr/yr growth however would continue to accelerate, to 6.0% from 5.7%, extending the move of a low of -3.0% in May 2023.
