Preview: Due December 24 - U.S. November New Home Sales - Rebounding from hurricanes
We expect a November new home sales level of 740k, which would be a 21.3% increase if October’s 17.3% decline to 610k is unrevised. October’s decline came mostly in the South and may have been caused by hurricanes. If so a rebound is likely.
The NAHB homebuilders’ index improved in October, contrasting the new home sales decline, and extended its gain in November. Housing demand has received support from the start of Fed easing. While we expect the November new home sales rise to be led by the South, we also expect modest gains in the Midwest and West, though the Northeast may correct from a strong October gain.
We expect monthly declines in prices of 1.0% in the median and 5.0% in the average after respective October gains of 2.5% and 7.0%. This would see yr/yr growth slip to 0.8% from 4.7% for the median and to 6.0% from 9.4% for the average.
