Preview: Due December 24 - U.S. November Durable Goods Orders - Trend showing signs of improvement
We expect November durable orders to increase by 0.6% overall with a 0.5% increase ex transport. This would be a fourth straight increase ex transport, suggesting some acceleration from what had recently been a fairly flat trend.
We expect transport orders to marginally exceed the ex transport pace despite Boeing orders being slightly weaker in the month even with a strike having been settled. We expect rebounds in autos and particularly defense, which has a large overlap with transport, from weaker October data. Ex defense, we expect a rise of only 0.3%.
ISM manufacturing data showed new orders moving above the neutral 50 kevel for the first time since March, supporting recent signs of an improvement in the ex transport trend.
We expect non-defense capital orders ex aircraft, a key indicator of business investment, to rise by 0.4%, correcting a 0.2% decline in October. This series has slightly underperformed the ex transport data in each of the last four months.
