U.S. June Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Weak but 6-month expectations bounce
June's Empire State manufacturing index at -16.0 from -9.2 suggests increasing weakness, though the series can be erratic, as noted by a -20.0 reading in March and a positive 20.2 in November 2024, neither of which was sustained. Six month expectations saw a significant bounce, to 21.2 from -2.0.
Current month data also shows new orders increasingly weak at -14.2 from a positive 7.0 in May, but employment at 4.7 from -5.1 turned positive and the workweek at -1.5 from -3.4 was less negative, making the current month detail mixed.
Price data was also mixed, with prices paid losing some momentum at 46.8 from 59.0, but this still seems high enough to be seeing pass through to prices received, which rose to 26.8 from 22.9, if still below April’s 28.7.
The six montth expectations index is the highest since February and suggests that worries over tariffs are starting to fade. Six month detail is similar to the current month, with positive employment, a marginally negative workweek, a correction lower in prices paid but prices received up from May but not as strong as April.
