Psychology for major markets Feb 13

EUR/USD – EUR holding the 1.07-1.08 range but risks look to have shifted to the upside as EUR short end yields rise.

USD/JPY – USD/JPY broke above 149 as US equities hit new highs and low FX vol encourages carry traders. But short JPY positions looks risky given low JPY level and potential BoJ tightening in the spring, while easing is likely elsewhere.

EUR/GBP – Underlying sentiment GBP positive as UK inflation is perceived to be more persistent than elsewhere, with UK average earnings data still at high levels on a y/y basis,  but positioning may be becoming a little extended, and this week’s CPI and GDP data could potentially undermine this year’s strength.

AUD/USD – AUD finding some support on the crosses from better equity performance while a more hawkish RBA has also helped halt losses.

USD/CHF – CHF falling back after weaker CPI helped by strong equity markets and the  SNB no longer providing support.

Equities – US markets remaining close to all time highs but may be vulnerable to any further decline in easing expectations.