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Published: 2024-01-09T16:21:06.000Z

North America Summary and Highlights 9 Jan

byAdrian Schmidt

Senior FX Strategist
-

USD generally firme rhelped by strong IBD/TIPP survey

North American session
The USD advanced through the North American session, gaining around 0.3% across the board. EUR/USD dropped to test the 1.09 support area, while USD/JPY moved back up to 144.40 after resisting the firmer USD tone through the European morning. 
The USD benefited from the stronger than expected IBD/TIPP economic confidence index, which rose to 44.2 in January, its highest since April. This seemed to trigger the USD strength, although the data only had a modest impact on yields.
Earlier, US trade numbers passed without much impact., but the Canadian numbers did seem to trigger some softnes sin the CAD. USD/CAD rise around 30 pips to 1.34 after the trade balance for November came in slightly lower than expected at CAD1.57bn, while the USD didn’t see any general reaction to the slightly smaller than expected US deficit of USD63.2bn. 
European morning session
The USD edged slightly higher through the European morning, with only USD/JPY little changed. EUR/USD fell around 20 pips to 1.0930, and most other currencies saw a similar dip against the USD. USD/JPY was little changed around 144.
German industrial production data early in the session was weak, showing a 0.7% decline m/m, but had no initial impact on the EUR.  Indeed, EUR yields were generally higher on the morning, and equities were softer in line with the rise in yields, which may have provided the impetus for the USD gains. The Eurozone unemployment rate was lower than expected, down to 6.4%. 
Swiss FX reserves rose in December for the first time since May, in line with the SNB’s declared policy to halt their reserve selling, and this helped EUR/CHF move back above 0.93, though gains were modest. 
The US NFIB survey came in slightly stronger than expected, in its first rise for 5 months, but remained at historically low levels. Inflation was the top problem for small business owners, and the share of owners reporting inflation as their main concern rose to a seasonally adjusted 23%.
 

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