Preview: Due January 28 - U.S. December Durable Goods Orders - Improvement in trend to resume
We expect December durable orders to increase by 2.2% overall with a 0.5% increase ex transport. This would suggest some improvement in underlying trend, more than fully reversing November’s declines of 1.2% overall and 0.2% ex transport.
We expect transport orders to be lifted by a pick-up in Boeing orders with the recent strike now over, as well as gains in autos where sales picked up in Q4, and a correction higher in defense after a decline in November. Defense has a strong overlap with transport. Ex defense, we expect orders to increase by 1.9%.
Trend in ex transport orders had shown some signs of picking up before November’s decline and with ISM manufacturing new orders stronger in December we expect gains in the ex transport series to resume.
We expect non-defense capital orders ex aircraft, a key indicator of business investment, to rise by 0.4% for a second straight month, marginally underperforming the ex transport series after a more significant outperformance in November. Ahead of November’s data, the ex transport series was trending slightly stronger than non-defense capital orders ex aircraft.
