Preview: Due July 18 - U.S. June Housing Starts and Permits - Starts to correct higher, permits to continue falling
We expect June housing starts to rise by 3.5% to 1300k in a correction from a 9.8% May decline, but we expect permits to fall by 1.0% to 1380k, in what would be a third straight fall.
Housing sector survey evidence is mostly quite subdued without declining sharply, with mortgage rates still high. June’s non-farm payroll saw a rise in construction employment but aggregate hours worked in construction slipped.
Single permits have fallen for three straight months and we expect trend to persist with a 0.9% decline in June. We expect multiple permits to fall by 1.0% in a third straight modest fall which will still not erase a strong 10.2% increase seen in March.
We expect single starts to resume a negative picture after a 0.4% increase in May, falling by 1.5%. However multiple starts look set for a bounce after falling by 29.7% in May, we expect by 17.5%.
