Preview: Due April 7 - U.S. February Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to slip, but ex transport trend is firm
We expect February durable goods orders to decline by 2.2% on a correction from recent strength in aircraft, though ex transport we expect continued underlying strength to be shown, with a rise of 0.7%.
Boeing orders suggest aircraft will see a significant decline after three straight strong months, November being the strongest. Elsewhere in the transport breakdown we expect a modest increase in autos and a bounce in defense, which has a strong overlap with transport, after a weak January, though modest in comparison with the aircraft dip. We expect orders to fall by 2.6% ex defense.
ISM manufacturing new orders saw a sharp pick up in January and while not quite as strong in February are consistent with a pick-up in trend in early 2026. A 0.7% increase ex transport would be a tenth straight rise and stronger than January’s 0.4%, if not as strong as December’s 1.2%.
We expect non-defense capital orders ex aircraft, a key indicator of business investment, to marginally outperform the ex-transport series with a rise of 0.8%, after underperforming in the preceding two months. This would be an eight consecutive increase. Six month averages are 0.7% fir non-defense capital ex aircraft and 90.6% ex transport.
