Published: 2025-03-17T19:25:24.000Z
Preview: Due March 27 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q4 GDP - No revision overall, but consumer spending may look slower
Senior Economist , North America
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We expect the final (third) estimate of Q4 GDP to be unrevised from the preliminary (second) estimate of 2.3%, though in USD terms the revisions will be marginally negative.
The main negative we expect is a downward revision to service consumption to 3.0% from 3.3% reducing consumer spending to 3.9% from 4.2%.
Partial offsets to this will come from construction (with upward revisions to private non-residential and public outweighing a downward revision to housing) and a downward revision to service imports lifting net exports.
We do not expect any revisions to the price indices, of 2.4% for GDP, 2.4% for PCE prices and 2.7% for the core PCE price index.
