Canada February retail sales - Moderate gain, though momentum fading
February Canadian retail sales with a 0.7% increase are slightly below a preliminary estimate of 0.9% made with January’s data. In real terms the rise was moderate at 0.3%. The preliminary estimate for march is for an increase of 0.6% but with prices, led by gasoline, having risen sharply in March, this is likely to be negative in real terms.
In February retail sales rose by 0.5% ex autos and 0.6% ex autos and gasoline with auto sales up by 1.0% and gasoline sales unchanged. In real terms sales ex autos and sales ex autos and gasoline each rise by only 0.1%.
February detail showed solid gains of near 1.0% in food, clothing and general merchandise, while building materials and electronics were negative.
After a healthy January increase Q1 is shaping up to show a respectable gain even with March likely to be negative in real terms, but if high gasoline prices persist, consumers will face significant headwinds in Q2.
