Preview: Due March 28 - Canada January GDP - Rise expected before tariffs start to bite
We expect Canadian GDP to see a 0.3% increase in January, consistent with a preliminary estimate made with December’s report, though as tariff concern build preliminary indications for February are likely to be flat at best.
No estimate for March will be made this month, but March may prove weaker still. If February and March are unchanged and January rises by 0.3%, Q1 GDP would be likely to come in around 1.5% annualized.
January’s gain is likely to be led by goods, with manufacturing data stronger and December’s report looking for strength in mining. The strength in goods may be temporary as exporters attempt to beat threatened tariffs. Within the services breakdown gains are seen in wholesale and transport/warehousing, but a correction is expected from a strong December in retail.
