U.S. December JOLTS report - Third straight decline in openings
December’s JOLTS report has delivered a 386k decline in job openings to 6.542m, which is the weakest level since September 2020 during the pandemic. The series is a volatile one but the decline is the third straight, the first time this has happened since July 2023.
The three straight monthly declines total 1116k, causing a sharply negative three month average of -372k. A 431k increase in September job openings now looks clearly erratic, though the correction from that gain is exaggerating the subsequent decline. The 6-month average of -136k, only slightly weaker than November’s, better illustrates trend. It is the weakest since June 2024.
Elsewhere in the report hires exceed separations by 42k, consistent with a 50k increase in December’s payroll, with hires up by 172k after a 247k loss in November and separations up by 107k after a 72k rise in November. The separations rise was led by layoffs with quits up by 11k after a 220k November increase that corrected a fall of 155k in October. Quits are still creeping slowly higher, showing some still have some optimism about their prospects of finding a job.