Preview: Due March 5 - U.S. February ADP Employment - Stable growth to continue
We expect a 175k increase in Februarys ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, similar to January’s 193k and December’s 176k. This is slightly lower than our 190k forecast for private sector non-farm payrolls. We expect overall payrolls including government to rise by 210k.
ADP data outperformed non-farm payrolls in January and October, but underperformed in November and December. ADP data tends to be less sensitive to weather than payrolls and harsh weather in October and January was likely responsible for the payroll underperformance.
Initial claims remain low, suggesting underlying labor market strength persists.
January’s ADP data showed strength in consumer facing industries with trade, transport and utilities up by 56k and leisure and hospitality up by 54k, but weaker data from business services and production, with manufacturing at -13k the only significant negative. February ADP data may be more balanced, but recent GDP growth has been consumer-led.
