USD/JPY flows: Getting ready for "leaks"
BoJ meeting will be done by Tuesday but any "leaks" in the mean time will dominate market sentiment
The BoJ meeting will be conducted from Monday to Tuesday and market participants should be ready for any "leaks" coming out as they will be market moving. Some big names are forecasting a hike in the March meeting but we feel like the BoJ is in no rush to hike with headline CPI moderating faster and the second to third round of wage negotiations still ongoing for small and medium firms. There are a variety of outcome with changing the forward guidance a staple and officially removing YCC unlikely to be market moving given the current level of yields. A hawkish surprise would be BoJ directly hike to 0.1% and keep the doors open for more tightening and a dovish one would be no hike.
On Monday Asia session, Bank of Japan announced to conduct an unscheduled bond buying operation. This is an interesting one as most expect a scraping of YCC on Tuesday and we did not see a spike in yield as previous intervention. This seems to be a pre-emptive move, which signals the BoJ is expecting the yields to rise on Tuesday and suggest very likely the YCC will be scrapped as expected.
USD/JPY is patiently waiting for "leaks" and is trading 0.08% higher at 149.11 with JGB yields falling more than U.S. T-yields.