U.S. March ADP Employment - Return to trend after a weaker February
ADP’s March estimate of private sector employment growth of 155k is a return to trend after a below trend 84k (revised from 77k) in February, suggesting the labor market remains healthy. While ADP is far from a reliable guide to payrolls, we expect something similar from the March non-farm payroll, with a rise of 165k, both overall and from the private sector.
While the overall ADP gain may end up being similar to the payroll, the details of the show sone surprising strength in professional and business, up 57k, financial, up 38k, and manufacturing up 21k. Similar gains in the former two components of the payroll would be exceptional while the manufacturing strength is inconsistent with most recent survey evidence. Education and health in contrast with a rise of 12k would be a dramatic slowdown from recent trend if matched in the payroll breakdown.
The ADP report states wages growth slowed, though at 4.6% for job stayers and 6.5% for job changers is far from weak., The premium for job changers is the lowest since September.
