Preview: Due April 30 - Canada February GDP - A stall before a fall
We expect Canadian GDP to be unchanged in February, in line with a preliminary estimate made with January’s strong 0.4% increase. As tariffs risk build, we expect the preliminary estimate for March to be modestly negative.
If February and March are unchanged Q1 would rise by an annualized pace close to 2.0% due to the strength of January. Even with a negative March Q1 is likely to rise by at least 1.5%. The Bank of Canada estimated Q1 at 1.8% in its recent Monetary Policy Report.
February details are likely to show a modest dip in goods as utilities and mining correct strong January gains. We expect modest gains in manufacturing and construction. We expect services to rise by 0.1%, matching January’s outcome. We expect yr/yr GDP to slip to 1.8% from 2.2%.
