Preview: Due October 25 - U.S. September Durable Goods Orders - Trend still close to flat
We expect September durable orders to increase by 0.6% but with a 0.2% decline ex transport, the latter a correction from an above trend 0.5% rise in August, keeping underlying trend close to flat.
Despite a strike, Boeing orders were stronger in September. We also expect the first rise from autos in five months and continued gains in defense, which has a large overlap with transport. We expect a 2.0% rise in transport orders. We expect overall orders to increase by 0.5% ex defense.
ISM manufacturing orders remained weak in September, if a little less so than in August where a 0.5% increase in orders ex transport was inconsistent with weaker ISM data. This suggests August’s above trend gain is unlikely to be sustained, and we expect a 0.2% dip ex transport in September.
We expect non-defense capital orders ex aircraft, a key indicator of business investment, to fall by 0.2% after a 0.3% August increase. Trend here is also close to flat.
