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Published: 2024-01-15T11:11:47.000Z

Psychology for major markets 15 Jan

byAdrian Schmidt

Senior FX Strategist
-

EUR/USD rangebound until we see divergence in policy expectations

EUR/USD – EUR/USD holding in the 1.09-1.10 range for now. Divergence between ECB and Fed monetary policy expectations looks necessary to break the range, unless we see a significant change in risk sentiment.
USD/JPY – USD/JPY running out of steam a bit near 146 and has overshot yield spread moves, but weaker risk sentiment needed to drive a stronger JPY across the board.
EUR/GBP – EUR/GBP holding close to 0.86, but looking a little low relative to current yield spreads. With BoE policy already priced to be more hawkish than others, upside risks dominate.
AUD/USD – The 0.6870 high from December looking toppish near term, but still some upside scope against the EUR if risk sentiment stabilises.
USD/CHF – CHF holding strong helped by higher than expected December CPI, but still looks toppish here as SNB turns more dovish and halts FX selling. 
Equities - CPI strong enough to ask some questions about the extent of Fed easing priced in, and may mark a near term top for equities.

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