Preview: Due February 2 - U.S. January ISM Manufacturing - Improved if still short of neutral
We expect January’s ISM manufacturing index to pick up to 49.0 from 47.9, still below neutral but the strongest since September after falling to its lowest level since October 2024 in December.
Other January manufacturing surveys have been on balance positive. The Philly Fed and Empire State surveys saw significant bounces above neutral as did the Chicago PMI. The Dallas Fed’s was significantly less negative and the Richmond Fed’s a little less so. The S and P manufacturing index remained modestly positive while the Kansas City Fed’s remained neutral.
We expect ISM detail to show the bounce led by new orders, rising to a neutral 50.0 from 47.4. We expect more moderate improvements in employment, inventories and delivery times while production remains at 51.0 to complete the breakdown of the composite.
Prices paid do not contribute to the composite and here we see an increase to 60.0 from 58.5 led by energy prices. After an unchanged December this will be the first increase since June’s index reached 69.7, fueled by tariff concerns.
