Preview: Due August 20 - Canada July CPI - Strong year ago data to see yr/yr growth fall
We expect July Canadian CPI to show a monthly gain in line with a recent moderate trend, but year ago strength will see yr/yr growth to slip to 2.4%, the lowest since March 2021, from 2.7% in June. Softer data is also likely from the Bank of Canada’s core rates.
We expect CPI to rise by 0.2% in the month both overall and ex food and energy, the latter in line with June’s outcome and three of the last four months. We expect energy to be neutral after declining in May and June.
Before seasonal adjustment the gains may be a little stronger, we expect by 0.3% overall and ex food and energy.
We expect the ex food and energy yr/yr pace to slow to 2.6% from 2.9% but this is not one of the BoC’s three core rates. Here we expect CPI-trim to fall to 2.7% from 2.9%, CPI-median to fall to 2.4% from 2.6%, and CPI-common to fall to 2.2% from 2.3%.
