Asia Summary and Highlights 7 Dec
Ueda's mentioning of exit sparked a JPY rally
Ueda will patiently continue monetary easing and have not yet reached a situation in which we can achieve price target sustainably and stably and with sufficient certainty
Asia Session
Ueda's mentioning of exit has sparked a JPY rally on Thursday's Asia session. Most of the context remain the same as Ueda says the BoJ will patiently continue monetary easing and have not yet reached a situation in which we can achieve price target sustainably and stably and with sufficient certainty. However, we do hear the meaning of tend inflation as in "Achieving 2% trend inflation can be defined as a state where economy, void of new shocks, can see inflation sustained around 2% and wage growth somewhat above that level". While the details are not indicating a shift out of current monetary policy, JPY traders are happy to hear the word "exit" from Ueda's mouth. USD/JPY slipped by 0.36% to 146.78 with JGB yields jumping significantly higher, dwarfing the gains of U.S. Treasury Yields.
The Australian October Trade Balance is lower than expected with import contracting by 1.9% from 8% growth in September and export barely gaining 0.4% from -1% in September. It shows the domestic demand from Australia weakens on lower housing saving and negative real wage. Combined with sour regional risk sentiment, AUD/USD is 0.22% lower at 0.6534, NZD/USD down 0.26% to 0.6122 while USD/CAD rose 0.09% to 1.3605 as WTI was kept below 70 $/b. Elsewhere, EUR/USD is 0.04% lower and GBP/USD is 0.1% lower.
North American session
The USD ended mostly firmer after the US session, falling back a little after the slightly weaker than expected ADP employment data, but gaining momentum in the afternoon. After briefly reaching 1.08 EUR/USD fell to 1.0760 though EUR/GBP was marginally firmer as GBP/USD fell to near 1.2550. USD/JPY edged up within a tight 147 to 147.50 range.
USD/CAD edged a little higher to near 1.36 after the BoC left rates unchanged and delivered a fairly neutral statement. However a slightly more dovish tone to the statement suggests that the tightening bias has eased, and that further tightening can now be seen as unlikely. However AUD/CAD slipped to .89 as AUD/USD fell to 6550.
ADP's November estimate for private sector employment with a 103k increase is similar to October's revised 106k (from 113k) and suggests momentum has slowed. However ADP is not a reliable guide to non-farm payrolls, which will be lifted by 37k returning strikers which ADP data does not appear to reflect.