Preview: Due April 29 - U.S. February and March Housing Starts and Permits - A fairly flat picture
Housing starts and permits data for both February and March will be released on April 29. We expect a fairly flat housing market picture to emerge, with starts falling by 7.2% in February to 1380k after a 7.2% January increase, followed by a 1.4% rise to 1400k in March. We expect permits to rise by 0.3% in February to 1390k, and to remain at that level in March.
Most housing sector indicators have little clear direction, though signs of improvement in late 2025 have faded alongside fading hopes for further near term Fed easing. Weather is likely to be more supportive in March than February so we expect starts to be firmer in that month, though weather is likely to have less impact on permits.
Housing starts have seen three straight gains in the months to January, but with January’s 7.2% gain more than fully explained by the volatile multiples sector a reversal looks likely in February. We expect February’s 7.2% drop to come largely in multiples, with single starts falling by only 0.5%. For March we expect single starts to rise by 1.1% and multiples to increase by 2.2%.
January saw permits fall by 4.7% and here the fall was led by multiples, though single permits did fall by 0.6%, a second straight decline, which we expect to be extended by 0.7% in February. We expect multiples to increase by a modest 2.0%, with January’s decline having followed a strong December increase. We expect little change in March permits, in either singles or multiples.
