Published: 2025-02-04T13:19:09.000Z
Preview: Due February 5 - U.S. December Trade Balance - Sharp deterioration likely
Senior Economist , North America
-
We expect a December trade deficit of $98.0bn, up from $78.2bn in November and only modestly below a record $101.9bn seen in March 2022. We expect exports to fall by 2.8% and imports to rise by 3.5%.
We expect goods exports to fall by 4.4%, similar to a 4.5% fall seen in the advance goods report, and imports to rise by 3.9%, matching a rise seen in the advance goods report. This would produce a record goods deficit of $122.2bn.
We expect the services surplus to slip, to $24.2bn from $25.2bn in November, with a modest 0.3% rise in exports but a sharp 1.7% rise in imports. Both of these would be consistent with assumption s made in the advance GDP report.
