Preview: Due May 11 - U.S. April Existing Home Sales - An upward correction but trend may be slowing
We expect existing home sales to maintain a recent choppy pattern in April, with a 2.0% increase to 4.06m, in a partial correction from a 3.6% decline in March. Underlying trend is probably starting to slip as inflation fears reduce Fed easing prospects, even if our forecast implies the first positive yr/yr change, up by 1.0%, since October.
Pending home sales picked up from a very weak January in February and March, as did new home sales. However levels are not strong enough to suggest a strong bounce in existing home sales. The NAHB homebuilders’ index slipped in April.
Regionally the strongest scope for a bounce appears to be in the Northeast, followed by the Midwest. There is less upside scope in the South and West. We expect a 1.5% seasonal incase in prices, though that would see yr/yr growth slip to 0.2% from 1.5% in March, more than reversing a bounce from February’s 0.3%.
