Preview: Due March 18 - U.S. February Housing Starts and Permits - Starts to correct higher, Permits starting to slip
We expect February housing starts to rise by 2.5% to 1400k following a weather-depressed 9.8% decline in January, but permits to fall by 1.6% to 1450k. This would be a third straight fall.
Survey evidence such as the NAHB homebuilders’ survey is starting to show weakness in February, suggesting fading hopes for Fed easing are having an impact.
We expect single starts to rise by 3.7% after a fall of 8.4% in January but single permits to fall by 2.4% after a 0.2% January decline. Multiples are volatile but we do not expect big moves in February, seeing multiple starts down by 0.8% and multiple permits up by 0.8%.
Starts look set to recover from January slippage in there of the four regions, but the West is unlikely to sustain a strong January increase. Regional movements in permits are likely to be modest.
