Preview: Due April 17 - U.S. March Housing Starts and Permits - Flat trend, weather still supportive
We expect March housing starts to fall by 2.1% to 1470k, though this would leave them closer to February’s 1501k than January’s 1350k. It would also unusually remain above permits, which we expect to almost unchanged, up 0.1% to 1460k.
Housing data has been mixed with weakness in several surveys but little direction to the trend in new home sales. January’s weakness in starts was weather-related and February saw catch up. March non-farm payroll details showed stronger aggregate hours worked in construction, suggesting weather remained supportive.
The starts dip we expect would be modest, by 2.5% in singles and 0.8% in multiples after respective gains of 11.4% and 10.7% in February. For permits we expect singles to fall by 0.8% after a 0.4% February rise and multiples to rise by 0.8% after a 3.8% February fall.
Trend in permits looks fairly flat in line with that of new home sales, as is that for starts, but with more monthly volatility, often due to weather. The future outlook is unclear with much depending on whether the Fed focuses on supporting growth or containing inflation.
