Preview: Due March 18 - U.S. February Industrial Production - A moderate rise, led by autos
We expect February industrial production to rise by 0.4% overall with a 0.5% increase in manufacturing. This will maintain a modestly positive underlying picture but the future outlook is uncertain given unclear signals on trade policy.
We expect modest 0.5% increase in mining and a modest 0.5% decline in utilities. Continued cold weather will allow utilities to largely sustain a sharp 7.2% increase seen in January.
ISM manufacturing data was slower and non-farm payroll aggregate manufacturing hours worked were unchanged, though production and non-supervisory workers reversed a January decline. Manufacturing employment gains were led by autos following a decline in January. While we expect overall manufacturing to rise by 0.5% after a 0.1% January decline, ex autos we expect a rise of only 0.3%, after a 0.2% increase in January.
We expect capacity utilization to rise to 78.0% from 77.8%, reaching its highest since June, with manufacturing at 76.6% from 76.3%, reaching its highest since September.
