USD/JPY flows: Intervention Talk

European trading sees the focus remaining on the JPY, after Japanese officials warned over FX intervention.  We feel that USDJPY is weak enough to trigger FX intervention and thin markets could mean more success in moving the JPY.  However, Japanese officials may want to wait until early 2026 to intervene.  USDJPY is trapped in a range 157.00 to 157.90 and we would favor a move to 157.00, given some pre-Christmas trimming of positions but the USD then supported by a constructive U.S. equity market.  However, it is worth mentioning that BOJ intervention normally marks a bottom for the JPY and we are forecast a move on USDJPY to 140 by end 2026 (here).