Preview: Due February 20 - U.S. February S and P PMIs - Manufacturing significantly stronger, Services marginally so
We expect improvement in February’s S and P PMIs, more significantly in manufacturing, to 53.5 from 52.4, with services seeing only a modest increase to 53.0 from 52.7.
A sharp rise in December’s ISM manufacturing index to its highest level since August 2022 suggests upside risk to the S and P manufacturing index, though the ISM manufacturing level of 52.6 was only marginally above January’s S and P manufacturing index of 52.4. Still, we do expect the S and P index to move above the 2025 high seen in August, which was 53.0 for the final outcome and 53.3 for the preliminary.
The S and P services PMI slipped to its lowest level since February in December which contrasted a third straight increase in the ISM services index to 53.8, its highest level since December 2024. The contrast persisted in January, with the ISM services index unchanged and the S and P index seeing only a marginal rise, and we expect the S and P index to see a similar marginal increase in February. Bad weather in late January reduces the upside potential in the S and P services index. Manufacturing tends to be less sensitive to weather.
